Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Northwestern Wildcats: luck and expected wins

Northwestern is 2–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 49th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Northwestern wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs South Dakota State	W 34–18	97%	+3
Week 3	vs Colorado	W 41–7	65%	+35
Week 4	@ Indiana	L 23–29	9%	−9

Wk 1 +3 vs SDST

Wk 3 +35 vs COLO

Wk 4 −9 @ IU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Northwestern win chance
Week 5 · Oct 2	vs Penn State	Penn State by 2.2	45%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Ball State	Northwestern by 33.0	98%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Michigan State	Northwestern by 4.3	60%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Rutgers	Northwestern by 17.8	86%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Oregon	Oregon by 10.2	27%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Iowa	Iowa by 2.3	45%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Ohio State	Ohio State by 18.7	13%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Minnesota	Northwestern by 4.0	59%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Illinois	Northwestern by 5.3	62%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Northwestern’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.14	+7.2
3rd & 4th downs	+0.06	+9.0
Kicks	+0.02	+3.8
Pre-snap flags	−0.07	−1.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Northwestern takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	@ Penn State	W 22–21	19%	+81
2026 Week 3	vs Colorado	W 41–7	65%	+35
2025 Week 13	vs Minnesota	W 38–35	66%	+34
2025 Week 5	vs UCLA	W 17–14	66%	+34
2025 Week 8	vs Purdue	W 19–0	77%	+23

Unluckiest losses

Losses Northwestern would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 1	@ Tulane	L 3–23	37%	−37
2025 Week 9	@ Nebraska	L 21–28	29%	−29
2025 Week 14	@ Illinois	L 13–20	12%	−12
2026 Week 4	@ Indiana	L 23–29	9%	−9
2025 Week 11	@ USC	L 17–38	6%	−6

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	4.9	+1.1	3–3	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Tulane	L 3–23	37%	−37
Week 2	vs Western Illinois	W 42–7	80%	+20
Week 3	vs Oregon	L 14–34	2%	−2
Week 5	vs UCLA	W 17–14	66%	+34
Week 6	vs UL Monroe	W 42–7	94%	+6
Week 7	@ Penn State	W 22–21	19%	+81
Week 8	vs Purdue	W 19–0	77%	+23
Week 9	@ Nebraska	L 21–28	29%	−29
Week 11	@ USC	L 17–38	6%	−6
Week 12	vs Michigan	L 22–24	1%	−1
Week 13	vs Minnesota	W 38–35	66%	+34
Week 14	@ Illinois	L 13–20	12%	−12
GameAbove Sports Bowl	vs Central Michigan	W 34–7	89%	+11