Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Oregon at Northwestern, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Northwestern 34–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 95% favorite.
Final
 Oregon Ducks | 34 |
|---|---|
 Northwestern Wildcats | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Oregon about even · −2 Northwestern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 10, Northwestern wins 0.
- 1 ORE 49 NU 0
- 2 ORE 56 NU 17
- 3 ORE 42 NU 7
- 4 ORE 31 NU 0
- 5 ORE 35 NU 7
- 6 ORE 24 NU 0
- 7 ORE 31 NU 10
- 8 ORE 24 NU 7
- 9 ORE 20 NU 7
- 10 ORE 26 NU 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 98% of them, Northwestern 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 82.1% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 10.7% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Northwestern by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Sappington, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- A. Sappington, 25 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Oregon 0 for 0 yards, Northwestern 4 for 27 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:11 | Illegal Formation on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORE +1.1 pts |
| Q2 8:50 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:01 | Pass Interference on Northwestern, 2 yards | 0% ORE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:41 | Face Mask on Northwestern, 15 yards | 0% ORE +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Northwestern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:01 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% NU | ORE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:45 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +1% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 6:36 | Northwestern converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +1% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 5:11 | Illegal Formation on Northwestern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:28 | A. Sappington made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +0% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 6:50 | Northwestern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% NU | NU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:24 | Oregon converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:38 | Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +0% ORE | NU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 98% · Northwestern 2%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 20
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 12.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 98% · Northwestern 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Oregon · 
Northwestern
More from Week 3 2025
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Towson at Maryland MD 44–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Villanova at Penn State PSU 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Indiana State at Indiana IU 73–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Nebraska NEB 59–7 · replay 100% for the winner