Week 3 2025 · September 12, 2025
Indiana State at Indiana, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Indiana State 73–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Indiana State Sycamores | 0 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 73 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Indiana State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Indiana State wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 INST 7 IU 52
- 2 INST 7 IU 59
- 3 INST 6 IU 63
- 4 INST 0 IU 61
- 5 INST 0 IU 65
- 6 INST 0 IU 68
- 7 INST 0 IU 70
- 8 INST 0 IU 73
- 9 INST 7 IU 84
- 10 INST 0 IU 84
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Indiana State wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 73.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Indiana State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Indiana State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Indiana State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 98.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Indiana State 0 for 0 yards, Indiana 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:38 | Face Mask on Indiana, 15 yards | 0% INST +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:14 | Offside on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% INST +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:44 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% INST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:01 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% INST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:57 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% INST +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:54 | Indiana converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedIndiana fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:43 | Indiana State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% IU | INST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:13 | Indiana converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:22 | Indiana State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% IU | INST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 3:09 | Indiana State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% IU | INST: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:07 | Indiana converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% IU | IU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 14:54 | Indiana State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% IU | INST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:58 | Indiana converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 84% expected | +0% IU | IU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Indiana State 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 73
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 64.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Indiana State 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Indiana State · 
Indiana
More from Week 3 2025
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Towson at Maryland MD 44–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Villanova at Penn State PSU 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner