Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Minnesota at California, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
California beat Minnesota 27–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Minnesota was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:10 left): Pass Interference on Minnesota, 50 yards, worth 17 points of win probability to California.
Final
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 14 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 California lucky · −28 Minnesota
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Minnesota wins 3, California wins 7.
- 1 MINN 31 CAL 14
- 2 MINN 17 CAL 7
- 3 MINN 10 CAL 7
- 4 MINN 17 CAL 20
- 5 MINN 17 CAL 21
- 6 MINN 13 CAL 22
- 7 MINN 7 CAL 19
- 8 MINN 7 CAL 22
- 9 MINN 7 CAL 27
- 10 MINN 3 CAL 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Minnesota wins 28% of them, California 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Minnesota by 17+ | 4.2% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 8.3% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 14.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| California by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| California by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| California by 17+ | 26.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Murray, 45 yds made · 64% expected
- B. Denaburg, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
- C. Meyer, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Minnesota 8 for 120 yards, California 8 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:30 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 15 yards | +3% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:11 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 15 yards | +2% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:27 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MINN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:00 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +1% MINN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:34 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MINN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:02 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:33 | Holding on California, 0 yards | +2% MINN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:40 | Pass Interference on California, 14 yards | +5% MINN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:52 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:22 | Delay of Game on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MINN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:23 | Holding on California, 5 yards | +4% MINN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:45 | Illegal Substitution on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:10 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 50 yards | +17% CAL +3.8 pts |
| Q4 8:37 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MINN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:00 | Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards | 0% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:55 | Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yards | 0% CAL +0.9 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:07 | California converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:21 | California was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +7% MINN | CAL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 6:42 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:48 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% MINN | MINN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:50 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% MINN | MINN: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 10:20 | Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% CAL | MINN: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:42 | B. Denaburg missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +10% CAL | MINN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 9:10 | Pass Interference on Minnesota, 50 yardsJudgment calls | +17% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Minnesota 8% · California 92%
- Final margin
- California by 13
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- California by 8.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Minnesota 28% · California 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Minnesota · 
California
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner