Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Pittsburgh at West Virginia, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
West Virginia beat Pittsburgh 31–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, West Virginia wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Pittsburgh: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against West Virginia it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:18 left): Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 13 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to West Virginia.
Final (OT)
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 24 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 West Virginia about even · −8 Pittsburgh
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Pittsburgh wins 1, West Virginia wins 9.
- 1 PITT 45 WVU 38
- 2 PITT 28 WVU 31
- 3 PITT 30 WVU 37
- 4 PITT 10 WVU 23
- 5 PITT 21 WVU 38
- 6 PITT 10 WVU 31
- 7 PITT 7 WVU 32
- 8 PITT 14 WVU 45
- 9 PITT 10 WVU 46
- 10 PITT 3 WVU 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Pittsburgh
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against West Virginia it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
60 points apart for Pittsburgh: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.05 | worse by 0.01 |
| Pittsburgh defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.07 | better by 0.15 |
| West Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.08 | worse by 0.16 |
| West Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.16 | better by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Pittsburgh wins 8% of them, West Virginia 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 4.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 14.1% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 67.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Hensley, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
- T. Butkowski, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- T. Butkowski, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Butkowski, 46 yds made · 61% expected
- T. Butkowski, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- K. Hensley, 21 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Pittsburgh 14 for 127 yards, West Virginia 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:04 | Illegal Block on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | +1% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:24 | Unnecessary Roughness on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +3% WVU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:58 | Targeting on West Virginia, 12 yards | +3% PITT +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:29 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Pittsburgh, 12 yards | 0% WVU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +5% WVU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Holding on West Virginia, 9 yards | +2% PITT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:39 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:56 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 9 yards | +4% WVU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:35 | Intentional Grounding on Pittsburgh, 12 yards | +9% WVU +2.6 pts |
| Q3 1:19 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WVU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:01 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:21 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% WVU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:14 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +4% WVU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:51 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PITT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on West Virginia, 14 yards | +1% PITT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on West Virginia, 15 yards | +3% PITT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:58 | Delay of Game on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:06 | Delay of Game on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:18 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 13 yards | +18% WVU +3.0 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:21 | Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedT. Butkowski missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him | +7% WVU | PITT: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q3 14:55 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedHolding on West Virginia, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +7% WVU | WVU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:27 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +10% WVU | WVU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 6:16 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedPittsburgh’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% PITT | PITT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 3:35 | Intentional Grounding on Pittsburgh, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +9% WVU | WVU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 14:06 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +7% PITT | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 11:26 | West Virginia was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +11% PITT | WVU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:18 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +18% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Pittsburgh 31% · West Virginia 69%
- Final margin
- West Virginia by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for West Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Virginia by 3.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Pittsburgh 8% · West Virginia 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Pittsburgh · 
West Virginia
More from Week 3 2025
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Colorado at Houston HOU 36–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Kansas State at Arizona ARIZ 23–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner