Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Texas State at Arizona State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona State beat Texas State 34–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona State was an 88% favorite.
Final
 Texas State Bobcats | 15 |
|---|---|
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Arizona State about even · −2 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas State wins 0, Arizona State wins 10.
- 1 TXST 17 ASU 21
- 2 TXST 13 ASU 23
- 3 TXST 10 ASU 26
- 4 TXST 3 ASU 23
- 5 TXST 3 ASU 26
- 6 TXST 6 ASU 31
- 7 TXST 3 ASU 31
- 8 TXST 0 ASU 31
- 9 TXST 7 ASU 44
- 10 TXST 3 ASU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas State wins 2% of them, Arizona State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 11.6% |
| Arizona State by 17+ | 80.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Gomez, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- T. Robles, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Gomez, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- T. Robles, 54 yds missed · 48% expected
Penalties: Texas State 1 for 10 yards, Arizona State 4 for 63 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:21 | Illegal Formation on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:18 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +1% TXST +1.3 pts |
| Q3 14:47 | Holding on Arizona State, 38 yards | 0% TXST +2.3 pts |
| Q3 8:28 | Penalty on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% ASU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:44 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Arizona State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:01 | Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +2% TXST | ASU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:30 | Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +3% TXST | ASU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:46 | Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% TXST | ASU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 6:40 | J. Gomez made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +1% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:27 | Texas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 2:21 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% ASU | TXST: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 14:51 | Arizona State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +1% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 12:06 | Texas State fumbled and Arizona State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% ASU | TXST: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas State 1% · Arizona State 99%
- Final margin
- Arizona State by 19
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for Arizona State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona State by 16.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas State 2% · Arizona State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Texas State · 
Arizona State
More from Week 3 2025
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Colorado at Houston HOU 36–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Kansas State at Arizona ARIZ 23–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Utah at Wyoming UTAH 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner