Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Murray State at Georgia State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia State beat Murray State 37–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia State was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Murray State Racers | 21 |
|---|---|
 Georgia State Panthers | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Georgia State about even · −2 Murray State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Murray State wins 0, Georgia State wins 10.
- 1 MUR 16 GAST 20
- 2 MUR 14 GAST 23
- 3 MUR 13 GAST 28
- 4 MUR 13 GAST 31
- 5 MUR 24 GAST 45
- 6 MUR 6 GAST 30
- 7 MUR 28 GAST 56
- 8 MUR 13 GAST 45
- 9 MUR 0 GAST 38
- 10 MUR 10 GAST 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Murray State wins 2% of them, Georgia State 98%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia State by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Murray State by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Murray State by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Murray State by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 10.1% |
| Georgia State by 17+ | 82.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Tannehill, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
- J. Tannehill, 33 yds missed · 83% expected
Penalties: Murray State 2 for 25 yards, Georgia State 13 for 132 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:50 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MUR +1.4 pts |
| Q1 11:22 | Unnecessary Roughness on Murray State, 15 yards | +1% GAST +2.0 pts |
| Q1 6:31 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MUR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:51 | Personal Foul on Georgia State, 10 yards | 0% MUR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:54 | Holding on Murray State, 10 yards | 0% GAST +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | Block Below the Waist on Georgia State, 12 yards | 0% MUR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | 0% GAST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 11:22 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | 0% MUR +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:04 | Illegal Formation on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MUR +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:32 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | 0% MUR +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:21 | Illegal Snap on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MUR +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:11 | Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards | 0% MUR +2.8 pts |
| Q4 14:56 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia State, 15 yards | 0% MUR +4.3 pts |
| Q4 6:59 | Unnecessary Roughness on Georgia State, 15 yards | 0% MUR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:05 | Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yards | 0% MUR +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Georgia State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:50 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MUR | MUR: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:22 | Unnecessary Roughness on Murray State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% GAST | GAST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:10 | Murray State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +1% GAST | MUR: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:54 | Holding on Murray State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:19 | Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% GAST | MUR: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 9:52 | Murray State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% GAST | MUR: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:38 | Block Below the Waist on Georgia State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MUR | MUR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:35 | Murray State fumbled and Georgia State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% GAST | MUR: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Murray State 20% · Georgia State 80%
- Final margin
- Georgia State by 16
- Luck in points
- 10.8 for Georgia State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia State by 5.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Murray State 2% · Georgia State 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Murray State · 
Georgia State
More from Week 3 2025
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Memphis at Troy MEM 28–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Louisiana at Missouri MIZ 52–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Kentucky at Marshall MRSH 38–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Indiana State at Indiana IU 73–0 · replay 100% for the winner