Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
East Carolina beat Coastal Carolina 38–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, East Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 15:00 left): Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to East Carolina.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 East Carolina about even · −4 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Carolina wins 10, Coastal Carolina wins 0.
- 1 ECU 51 CCU 3
- 2 ECU 44 CCU 3
- 3 ECU 51 CCU 17
- 4 ECU 37 CCU 7
- 5 ECU 34 CCU 7
- 6 ECU 31 CCU 7
- 7 ECU 30 CCU 10
- 8 ECU 26 CCU 10
- 9 ECU 28 CCU 16
- 10 ECU 19 CCU 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Carolina wins 96% of them, Coastal Carolina 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Carolina by 17+ | 73.6% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Laforge, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
- N. Mazzie, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- N. Mazzie, 26 yds blocked · 90% expected
Penalties: East Carolina 4 for 30 yards, Coastal Carolina 7 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:06 | Delay of Game on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 11:08 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Encroachment on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:45 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +2% ECU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% ECU +4.5 pts |
| Q3 8:15 | Pass Interference on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ECU +3.4 pts |
| Q3 6:26 | Illegal Substitution on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:47 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yards | +1% CCU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:47 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ECU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:47 | Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:56 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% CCU | CCU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:26 | East Carolina converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +4% ECU | ECU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:09 | Coastal Carolina fumbled and East Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% ECU | CCU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 13:31 | East Carolina was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +4% CCU | ECU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 9:40 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedEast Carolina converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedEast Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedFalse Start on East Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% ECU | ECU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 3:42 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedN. Mazzie had a 26-yard field goal blockedKicks · 90% expected for him | +5% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedHolding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% ECU | CCU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 9:51 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Carolina 100% · Coastal Carolina 0%
- Final margin
- East Carolina by 38
- Luck in points
- 5.3 for East Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 32.7
- Replay with same day's form
- East Carolina 96% · Coastal Carolina 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
East Carolina · 
Coastal Carolina
More from Week 3 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Navy at Tulsa NAVY 42–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- App State at Southern Miss USM 38–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Prairie View A&M at Rice RICE 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Murray State at Georgia State GAST 37–21 · replay 98% for the winner