luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Prairie View A&M at Rice, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Rice beat Prairie View A&M 38–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Rice wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Rice was a 97% favorite.

Final

Prairie View A&M Panthers 17
Rice Owls 38

September 13, 2025 · Rice Stadium · Closing line: Rice −29.5

Luck index +4 Rice about even · −4 Prairie View A&M

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Prairie View A&M wins 0, Rice wins 10.

  1. 1 PV 10 RICE 14
  2. 2 PV 6 RICE 16
  3. 3 PV 21 RICE 34
  4. 4 PV 10 RICE 27
  5. 5 PV 10 RICE 28
  6. 6 PV 2 RICE 23
  7. 7 PV 0 RICE 24
  8. 8 PV 0 RICE 28
  9. 9 PV 3 RICE 36
  10. 10 PV 7 RICE 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Prairie View A&M wins 4% of them, Rice 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rice by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Prairie View A&M by 17+0.2%
Prairie View A&M by 9–161.1%
Prairie View A&M by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.8%
Rice by 1–813.3%
Rice by 9–1615.4%
Rice by 17+67.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to Prairie View A&M: the final margin was Rice by 21, without the luck Rice by 24.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Gota, 49 yds made · 55% expected
  • A. Webb, 28 yds made · 87% expected
  • E. Gota, 54 yds missed · 46% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Prairie View A&M 7 for 54 yards, Rice 6 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:40 Holding on Rice, 10 yards 0% PV +0.9 pts
Q1 2:46 Illegal Substitution on Prairie View A&M, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% RICE +1.7 pts
Q1 1:23 Pass Interference on Rice, 13 yards +2% PV +2.9 pts
Q1 1:15 False Start on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RICE +0.7 pts
Q2 13:36 Running Into the Kicker on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards +2% RICE +3.4 pts
Q2 10:33 Holding on Prairie View A&M, 10 yards 0% RICE +1.1 pts
Q3 12:41 Offside on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RICE +0.6 pts
Q3 11:42 Penalty on Prairie View A&M, 10 yards 0% RICE +0.9 pts
Q3 4:57 Holding on Rice, 10 yards 0% PV +0.8 pts
Q4 13:37 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rice, 15 yards 0% PV +0.5 pts
Q4 4:08 Offside on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PV +2.0 pts
Q4 1:35 Illegal Motion on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PV +0.3 pts
Q4 1:28 Penalty on Prairie View A&M, 15 yards 0% RICE +1.6 pts

When it happened

Rice’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Rice was ahead in it, below while Prairie View A&M was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:39 Prairie View A&M converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% PV PV: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:31 Rice was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +2% PV RICE: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:45 Rice converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +1% RICE RICE: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:46 Illegal Substitution on Prairie View A&M, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +1% RICE RICE: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:23 Pass Interference on Rice, 13 yardsJudgment calls +2% PV PV: Punt
6 Q2 13:36 Running Into the Kicker on Prairie View A&M, 5 yardsJudgment calls +2% RICE RICE: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:29 Rice was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +1% PV RICE: Touchdown
8 Q2 11:47 Rice converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +1% RICE RICE: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Prairie View A&M 0% · Rice 100%

Final margin
Rice by 21
Luck in points
3.7 for Prairie View A&M
Luck-adjusted margin
Rice by 24.7
Replay with same day's form
Prairie View A&M 4% · Rice 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Prairie View A&M · Rice

More from Week 3 2025

Every week 3 game, 2025