Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
South Florida at Miami, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat South Florida 49–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was an 87% favorite.
Final
 South Florida Bulls | 12 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 South Florida
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Florida wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 USF 16 MIA 37
- 2 USF 21 MIA 52
- 3 USF 14 MIA 49
- 4 USF 10 MIA 51
- 5 USF 17 MIA 62
- 6 USF 9 MIA 58
- 7 USF 21 MIA 73
- 8 USF 10 MIA 66
- 9 USF 0 MIA 62
- 10 USF 7 MIA 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Florida wins 0% of them, Miami 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 37.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Florida by 17+ | 0.0% |
| South Florida by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| South Florida by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Miami by 17+ | 98.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Gramatica, 45 yds made · 64% expected
- N. Gramatica, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: South Florida 2 for 15 yards, Miami 8 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:49 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:42 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:51 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Face Mask on Miami, 15 yards | 0% USF +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:28 | Personal Foul on Miami, 15 yards | 0% USF +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:15 | False Start on Miami, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:22 | Delay of Game on South Florida, 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% MIA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:03 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% USF +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:37 | Roughing the Passer on South Florida, 15 yards | 0% MIA +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:03 | Miami converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:32 | South Florida converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% USF | USF: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:37 | South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% MIA | USF: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:49 | False Start on Miami, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% USF | USF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 5:34 | Miami converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +1% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:58 | Miami converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:24 | South Florida converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% USF | USF: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 12:33 | South Florida converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% USF | USF: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Florida 0% · Miami 100%
- Final margin
- Miami by 37
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 33.9
- Replay with same day's form
- South Florida 0% · Miami 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
South Florida · 
Miami
More from Week 3 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- NC State at Wake Forest NCSU 34–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Boston College at Stanford STAN 30–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Navy at Tulsa NAVY 42–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ODU 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner