Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Akron at UAB, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
UAB beat Akron 31–28, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff UAB was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Akron Zips | 28 |
|---|---|
 UAB Blazers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 UAB lucky · −31 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Akron wins 3, UAB wins 7.
- 1 AKR 36 UAB 17
- 2 AKR 31 UAB 21
- 3 AKR 24 UAB 21
- 4 AKR 31 UAB 34
- 5 AKR 21 UAB 27
- 6 AKR 21 UAB 30
- 7 AKR 27 UAB 40
- 8 AKR 17 UAB 34
- 9 AKR 9 UAB 31
- 10 AKR 14 UAB 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Akron wins 31% of them, UAB 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UAB by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Akron by 17+ | 6.7% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 8.8% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| UAB by 17+ | 28.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Wiley, 36 yds made · 76% expected
- J. Delange, 44 yds made · 67% expected
- O. Wiley, 23 yds made · 89% expected
- O. Wiley, 48 yds missed · 55% expected
Penalties: Akron 4 for 48 yards, UAB 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:00 | Face Mask on UAB, 15 yards | +3% AKR +1.7 pts |
| Q1 9:54 | Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:03 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% AKR +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% UAB +3.2 pts |
| Q2 2:40 | Offside on UAB, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% AKR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on Akron, 6 yards | +2% UAB +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Personal Foul on Akron, 22 yards | +3% UAB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 11:08 | Personal Foul on Akron, 15 yards | +2% UAB +1.7 pts |
When it happened
UAB’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:31 | UAB was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% AKR | UAB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 5:08 | UAB converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +5% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 8:57 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:59 | Akron converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% AKR | AKR: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:38 | Akron’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:12 | Akron converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:48 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +4% UAB | AKR: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:47 | Akron was stopped on 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +5% UAB | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Akron 42% · UAB 58%
- Final margin
- UAB by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for UAB
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UAB by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Akron 31% · UAB 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Akron · 
UAB
More from Week 3 2025
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Navy at Tulsa NAVY 42–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ECU 38–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- Prairie View A&M at Rice RICE 38–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Incarnate Word at UTSA UTSA 48–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner