luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Buffalo at Kent State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Buffalo beat Kent State 31–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Buffalo wins 8 of 10. Kent State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Kent State.

Before kickoff Buffalo was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): Buffalo converted 3rd & 10, worth 24 points of win probability to Buffalo.

Final

Buffalo Bulls 31
Kent State Golden Flashes 28

September 13, 2025 · Dix Stadium · Closing line: Buffalo −23.5

Luck index +20 Buffalo about even · −20 Kent State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buffalo wins 8, Kent State wins 2.

  1. 1 BUF 40 KENT 0
  2. 2 BUF 40 KENT 10
  3. 3 BUF 40 KENT 16
  4. 4 BUF 59 KENT 38
  5. 5 BUF 40 KENT 23
  6. 6 BUF 41 KENT 28
  7. 7 BUF 42 KENT 35
  8. 8 BUF 24 KENT 21
  9. 9 BUF 31 KENT 34
  10. 10 BUF 24 KENT 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buffalo wins 80% of them, Kent State 20%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buffalo by 17+40.8%
Buffalo by 9–1618.4%
Buffalo by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation4.5%
Kent State by 1–810.7%
Kent State by 9–165.4%
Kent State by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Buffalo: the final margin was Buffalo by 3, without the luck Buffalo by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Buffalo 3 for 30 yards, Kent State 7 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:58 Intentional Grounding on Kent State, 9 yards +6% BUF +3.3 pts
Q2 12:35 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 12:22 False Start on Kent State, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT +0.4 pts
Q2 1:32 Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:07 Pass Interference on Kent State, 15 yards 0% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 5:10 Face Mask on Buffalo, 15 yards +1% KENT +1.4 pts
Q3 2:01 Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards +1% KENT +0.6 pts
Q4 11:08 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 8:38 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards +5% BUF +1.4 pts

When it happened

Kent State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kent State was ahead in it, below while Buffalo was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:58 Intentional Grounding on Kent State, 9 yardsJudgment calls +6% BUF BUF: Turnover
2 Q4 7:34 Kent State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% KENT KENT: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:41 Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% BUF KENT: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:48 Kent State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +20% KENT KENT: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:38 Kent State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +15% KENT KENT: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:03 Buffalo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +24% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:41 Kent State was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% BUF KENT: Turnover
8 Q4 0:18 Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +13% KENT –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buffalo 61% · Kent State 39%

Final margin
Buffalo by 3
Luck in points
1.4 for Buffalo
Luck-adjusted margin
Buffalo by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Buffalo 80% · Kent State 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Buffalo · Kent State

More from Week 3 2025

Every week 3 game, 2025