Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
New Hampshire at Ball State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Ball State beat New Hampshire 34–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ball State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ball State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:53 left): Return touchdown by New Hampshire, worth 12 points of win probability to New Hampshire.
Final
 New Hampshire Wildcats | 29 |
|---|---|
 Ball State Cardinals | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Ball State about even · −4 New Hampshire
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Hampshire wins 0, Ball State wins 10.
- 1 UNH 21 BALL 24
- 2 UNH 17 BALL 24
- 3 UNH 23 BALL 34
- 4 UNH 10 BALL 24
- 5 UNH 10 BALL 28
- 6 UNH 14 BALL 35
- 7 UNH 13 BALL 38
- 8 UNH 7 BALL 35
- 9 UNH 9 BALL 41
- 10 UNH 6 BALL 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Hampshire wins 4% of them, Ball State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ball State by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Hampshire by 17+ | 0.2% |
| New Hampshire by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| New Hampshire by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 14.7% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Ball State by 17+ | 64.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Reed, 25 yds missed · 93% expected
- N. Reed, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
- N. Reed, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- N. Reed, 29 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: New Hampshire 6 for 62 yards, Ball State 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:22 | Offside on New Hampshire, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% UNH +2.3 pts |
| Q2 13:22 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:36 | Face Mask on New Hampshire, 15 yards | +4% BALL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 2:53 | False Start on New Hampshire, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BALL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:02 | Targeting on Ball State, 7 yards | 0% UNH +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Pass Interference on New Hampshire, 15 yards | +1% BALL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:15 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 14 yards | +3% UNH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:06 | Personal Foul on New Hampshire, 15 yards | +3% BALL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:50 | Holding on New Hampshire, 7 yards | +1% BALL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:07 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | +3% UNH +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Ball State’s chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Return touchdown by New HampshireSpecial teams | +12% UNH | UNH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:40 | New Hampshire converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% UNH | UNH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:22 | Offside on New Hampshire, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% UNH | BALL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:35 | Ball State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% BALL | BALL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 9:31 | Ball State fumbled and New Hampshire recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UNH | BALL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 7:54 | N. Reed missed a 25-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +9% BALL | UNH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:32 | Ball State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +5% BALL | BALL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 6:19 | New Hampshire converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% UNH | UNH: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Hampshire 23% · Ball State 77%
- Final margin
- Ball State by 5
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ball State by 5.0
- Replay with same day's form
- New Hampshire 4% · Ball State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
New Hampshire · 
Ball State
More from Week 3 2025
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Iowa IOWA 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- William & Mary at Virginia UVA 55–16 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Illinois ILL 38–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Towson at Maryland MD 44–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Villanova at Penn State PSU 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Michigan MICH 63–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Morgan State at Toledo TOL 60–0 · replay 100% for the winner