Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Massachusetts at Iowa, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Massachusetts 47–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 7 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Iowa about even · −1 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Massachusetts wins 0, Iowa wins 10.
- 1 MASS 3 IOWA 10
- 2 MASS 7 IOWA 20
- 3 MASS 14 IOWA 31
- 4 MASS 0 IOWA 20
- 5 MASS 3 IOWA 24
- 6 MASS 0 IOWA 26
- 7 MASS 6 IOWA 34
- 8 MASS 0 IOWA 31
- 9 MASS 0 IOWA 36
- 10 MASS 3 IOWA 46
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Massachusetts wins 1% of them, Iowa 99%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 40.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 4.4% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 11.6% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 82.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Stevens, 54 yds made · 49% expected
- D. Stevens, 38 yds missed · 79% expected
- D. Stevens, 27 yds made · 92% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Massachusetts 1 for 5 yards, Iowa 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:19 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:01 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:50 | Iowa converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:41 | Iowa converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedIowa missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% MASS | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:09 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% IOWA | MASS: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:10 | Blocked punt by MassachusettsSpecial teams | +0% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 9:55 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% MASS | IOWA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 9:50 | D. Stevens made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 11 of 18 from 45+ before | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 5:56 | D. Stevens missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him | +0% MASS | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:28 | Massachusetts was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% IOWA | MASS: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Massachusetts 0% · Iowa 100%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 40
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for Iowa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 29.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Massachusetts 1% · Iowa 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Massachusetts · 
Iowa
More from Week 3 2025
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner