Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Eastern Michigan 48–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kentucky wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Kentucky was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 23 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Kentucky about even · −10 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 1, Kentucky wins 9.
- 1 EMU 45 UK 38
- 2 EMU 30 UK 33
- 3 EMU 31 UK 38
- 4 EMU 21 UK 33
- 5 EMU 30 UK 45
- 6 EMU 24 UK 43
- 7 EMU 37 UK 59
- 8 EMU 37 UK 65
- 9 EMU 14 UK 48
- 10 EMU 14 UK 57
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Michigan wins 10% of them, Kentucky 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 12.4% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 59.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- R. Kessinger, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- R. Kessinger, 50 yds made · 55% expected
- J. Kauwe, 51 yds made · 53% expected
- J. Kauwe, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Kessinger, 55 yds missed · 47% expected
Penalties: Eastern Michigan 8 for 85 yards, Kentucky 6 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:42 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% EMU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 5:37 | Personal Foul on Eastern Michigan, 12 yards | 0% UK +1.7 pts |
| Q2 7:03 | Pass Interference on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% EMU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:29 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Penalty on Kentucky, 8 yards | 0% EMU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:55 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:49 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | Delay of Game on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:53 | Penalty on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% EMU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 3 yards | 0% UK +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:10 | Personal Foul on Eastern Michigan, 0 yards | 0% UK 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:35 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:33 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 50 yards | 0% UK +2.0 pts |
| Q4 2:11 | Illegal Snap on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:41 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +1% UK | EMU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 6:30 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +1% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:37 | Personal Foul on Eastern Michigan, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:43 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% EMU | UK: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:08 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:49 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% EMU | UK: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:19 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% EMU | UK: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 8:13 | J. Kauwe made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +1% UK | UK: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Michigan 0% · Kentucky 100%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 25
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Michigan 10% · Kentucky 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Eastern Michigan · 
Kentucky
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- South Alabama at Auburn AUB 31–15 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner