luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Texas A&M at Notre Dame, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Texas A&M beat Notre Dame 41–40, but the replays lean toward Notre Dame: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Texas A&M.

Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 66% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:13 left): Texas A&M converted 4th & 11, worth 34 points of win probability to Texas A&M.

Final

Texas A&M Aggies 41
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 40

September 13, 2025 · Notre Dame Stadium · Closing line: Notre Dame −6.5

Luck index +63 Texas A&M very lucky · −63 Notre Dame

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texas A&M wins 4, Notre Dame wins 6.

  1. 1 TA&M 56 ND 31
  2. 2 TA&M 31 ND 17
  3. 3 TA&M 31 ND 23
  4. 4 TA&M 17 ND 14
  5. 5 TA&M 33 ND 35
  6. 6 TA&M 30 ND 35
  7. 7 TA&M 24 ND 31
  8. 8 TA&M 28 ND 40
  9. 9 TA&M 20 ND 38
  10. 10 TA&M 17 ND 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texas A&M wins 37% of them, Notre Dame 63%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texas A&M by 17+8.2%
Texas A&M by 9–169.6%
Texas A&M by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation4.8%
Notre Dame by 1–822.5%
Notre Dame by 9–1617.2%
Notre Dame by 17+21.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to Texas A&M: the final margin was Texas A&M by 1, without the luck Texas A&M by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Burnette, 22 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Bond, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
  • R. Bond, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Burnette, 39 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Bond, 45 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texas A&M 13 for 85 yards, Notre Dame 5 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:25 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards +3% ND +1.4 pts
Q1 13:06 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ND +0.8 pts
Q1 8:12 Unnecessary Roughness on Texas A&M, 15 yards +6% ND +3.2 pts
Q2 8:20 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ND +0.6 pts
Q2 1:55 Face Mask on Notre Dame, 1 yard +2% TA&M +0.8 pts
Q2 1:04 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards +1% ND +0.3 pts
Q3 14:25 False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TA&M +0.8 pts
Q3 12:16 Intentional Grounding on Notre Dame, 0 yards 0% TA&M 0.0 pts
Q3 11:30 False Start on Texas A&M, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% TA&M 0.0 pts
Q3 6:20 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ND +0.6 pts
Q3 6:11 Illegal Formation on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ND +0.3 pts
Q4 13:51 Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yards +11% TA&M +2.9 pts
Q4 11:41 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ND +0.6 pts
Q4 10:19 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ND +0.5 pts
Q4 2:53 Holding on Texas A&M, 9 yards +2% ND +0.6 pts
Q4 0:54 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ND +0.3 pts
Q4 0:54 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ND +0.3 pts
Q4 0:39 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards +11% TA&M +1.9 pts

When it happened

Notre Dame’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Notre Dame was ahead in it, below while Texas A&M was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Notre DameSpecial teams +9% ND ND: Punt
2 Q3 3:34 Notre Dame was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +13% TA&M ND: Field goal
3 Q4 13:51 Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% TA&M TA&M: Field goal
4 Q4 11:10 Texas A&M converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% TA&M TA&M: Field goal
5 Q4 7:48 Notre Dame converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% ND ND: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:35 Notre Dame converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +9% ND ND: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:39 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% TA&M TA&M: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:13 The game turned hereTexas A&M converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +34% TA&M –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texas A&M 52% · Notre Dame 48%

Final margin
Texas A&M by 1
Luck in points
0.4 for Texas A&M
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas A&M by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Texas A&M 37% · Notre Dame 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Texas A&M · Notre Dame

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