Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Oklahoma at Temple, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat Temple 42–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma Sooners | 42 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oklahoma about even · 0 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 10, Temple wins 0.
- 1 OU 63 TEM 0
- 2 OU 63 TEM 7
- 3 OU 52 TEM 0
- 4 OU 47 TEM 0
- 5 OU 51 TEM 7
- 6 OU 39 TEM 0
- 7 OU 36 TEM 0
- 8 OU 35 TEM 3
- 9 OU 28 TEM 0
- 10 OU 27 TEM 10
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma wins 100% of them, Temple 0%. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 96.1% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Temple by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sandell, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- C. Hardin, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- T. Sandell, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- A. Welch, 52 yds missed · 50% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma 2 for 10 yards, Temple 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:42 | False Start on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:54 | Offside on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:31 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards | 0% OU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 10:03 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% OU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 3:51 | Pass Interference on Temple, 15 yards | 0% OU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:03 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% OU | TEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:36 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedOklahoma’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOklahoma fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:26 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +1% OU | TEM: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:31 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% OU | OU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 4:05 | T. Sandell made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +1% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:17 | Temple converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% TEM | TEM: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:27 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +1% OU | TEM: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:03 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% OU | OU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma 100% · Temple 0%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 39
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 31.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma 100% · Temple 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Oklahoma · 
Temple
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Duke at Tulane TULN 34–27 · replay 75% for the winner
- Navy at Tulsa NAVY 42–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Monmouth at Charlotte CLT 42–35 · replay 86% for the winner
- UTEP at Texas TEX 27–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner