Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
UTEP at Texas, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas beat UTEP 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 99% favorite.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 10 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Texas about even · −11 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 1, Texas wins 9.
- 1 UTEP 7 TEX 3
- 2 UTEP 10 TEX 13
- 3 UTEP 10 TEX 16
- 4 UTEP 14 TEX 22
- 5 UTEP 3 TEX 14
- 6 UTEP 10 TEX 24
- 7 UTEP 17 TEX 34
- 8 UTEP 10 TEX 31
- 9 UTEP 0 TEX 24
- 10 UTEP 3 TEX 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 11% of them, Texas 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 0.6% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Texas by 17+ | 49.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Arreola, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- M. Shipley, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- M. Shipley, 30 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: UTEP 3 for 7 yards, Texas 5 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:44 | False Start on UTEP, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 0 yards | 0% TEX +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:11 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas, 15 yards | 0% TEX +1.9 pts |
| Q3 0:40 | Block Below the Waist on Texas, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:10 | Illegal Substitution on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:10 | Pass Interference on Texas, 11 yards | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:54 | Texas was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% UTEP | TEX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:46 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +0% TEX | UTEP: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:22 | UTEP was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% TEX | UTEP: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:27 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% UTEP | TEX: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:59 | Texas was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% UTEP | TEX: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:55 | C. Arreola made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +0% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:54 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 0 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:18 | Texas converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 1% · Texas 99%
- Final margin
- Texas by 17
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 13.6
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 11% · Texas 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
UTEP · 
Texas
More from Week 3 2025
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner
- SMU at Missouri State SMU 28–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- UConn at Delaware DEL 44–41 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern GASO 41–34 · replay 56% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina VAN 31–7 · replay 67% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kennesaw State KENN 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner