luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Middle Tennessee at Nevada, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Middle Tennessee beat Nevada 14–13, but the replays lean toward Nevada: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Middle Tennessee.

Before kickoff Nevada was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 5, worth 15 points of win probability to Middle Tennessee.

Final

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 14
Nevada Wolf Pack 13

September 13, 2025 · Mackay Stadium · Closing line: Nevada −9.5

Luck index +79 Middle Tennessee very lucky · −79 Nevada

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 2, Nevada wins 8.

  1. 1 MTSU 41 NEV 26
  2. 2 MTSU 24 NEV 20
  3. 3 MTSU 28 NEV 31
  4. 4 MTSU 7 NEV 13
  5. 5 MTSU 23 NEV 31
  6. 6 MTSU 21 NEV 34
  7. 7 MTSU 15 NEV 30
  8. 8 MTSU 14 NEV 33
  9. 9 MTSU 10 NEV 34
  10. 10 MTSU 12 NEV 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Middle Tennessee wins 21% of them, Nevada 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Middle Tennessee by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Middle Tennessee by 17+3.0%
Middle Tennessee by 9–166.3%
Middle Tennessee by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Nevada by 1–821.4%
Nevada by 9–1618.9%
Nevada by 17+38.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to Nevada: the final margin was Middle Tennessee by 1, without the luck Middle Tennessee by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Hathaway, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. McFadden, 38 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. McFadden, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. McFadden, 41 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. McFadden, 56 yds missed · 44% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Middle Tennessee 6 for 46 yards, Nevada 4 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:56 Pass Interference on Nevada, 15 yards +2% MTSU +1.2 pts
Q1 9:52 Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NEV +0.5 pts
Q1 0:26 Encroachment on Middle Tennessee, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.1 pts
Q2 12:42 Pass Interference on Nevada, 15 yards +2% MTSU +1.4 pts
Q2 11:42 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards +1% NEV +0.7 pts
Q2 7:15 Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards +2% NEV +1.6 pts
Q2 6:53 Holding on Nevada, 10 yards +1% MTSU +1.3 pts
Q2 4:19 Roughing the Passer on Nevada, 15 yards +2% MTSU +1.6 pts
Q3 3:12 Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.5 pts
Q4 0:21 Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NEV +0.6 pts

When it happened

Nevada’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Nevada was ahead in it, below while Middle Tennessee was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:23 Nevada converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% NEV NEV: Punt
2 Q1 6:58 Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +3% MTSU NEV: Punt
3 Q2 11:35 J. Hathaway missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him +5% NEV MTSU: Punt
4 Q3 7:16 Nevada converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% NEV NEV: Punt
5 Q4 6:30 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:15 J. McFadden missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him +6% MTSU NEV: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:33 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:21 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedDelay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% MTSU MTSU: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Middle Tennessee 64% · Nevada 36%

Final margin
Middle Tennessee by 1
Luck in points
1.1 for Nevada
Luck-adjusted margin
Middle Tennessee by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Middle Tennessee 21% · Nevada 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Middle Tennessee · Nevada

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