luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025

Portland State at Hawai'i, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

Hawai'i beat Portland State 23–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 99% favorite.

Final

Portland State Vikings 3
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 23

September 13, 2025 · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Closing line: Hawai'i −35.5

Luck index +37 Hawai'i lucky · −37 Portland State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Portland State wins 4, Hawai'i wins 6.

  1. 1 PRST 20 HAW 0
  2. 2 PRST 22 HAW 10
  3. 3 PRST 20 HAW 13
  4. 4 PRST 20 HAW 17
  5. 5 PRST 3 HAW 6
  6. 6 PRST 23 HAW 28
  7. 7 PRST 10 HAW 18
  8. 8 PRST 3 HAW 16
  9. 9 PRST 0 HAW 16
  10. 10 PRST 5 HAW 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Portland State wins 37% of them, Hawai'i 63%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Portland State by 17+5.3%
Portland State by 9–1610.4%
Portland State by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation4.9%
Hawai'i by 1–824.2%
Hawai'i by 9–1619.3%
Hawai'i by 17+18.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Hawai'i: the final margin was Hawai'i by 20, without the luck Hawai'i by 13.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Matsuzawa, 44 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Uribe, 25 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 47 yds made · 60% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 35 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Portland State 7 for 65 yards, Hawai'i 13 for 123 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:55 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 14 yards 0% PRST +2.1 pts
Q1 6:25 Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yards 0% PRST +1.3 pts
Q1 4:54 Holding on Portland State, 10 yards 0% HAW +1.3 pts
Q1 1:03 Pass Interference on Portland State, 15 yards 0% HAW +1.0 pts
Q2 13:02 Holding on Portland State, 10 yards 0% HAW +0.6 pts
Q2 9:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Hawai'i, 0 yards 0% PRST 0.0 pts
Q2 9:02 Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.4 pts
Q2 2:30 False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.4 pts
Q3 14:05 Roughing the Passer on Portland State, 15 yards 0% HAW +3.3 pts
Q3 7:59 Delay of Game on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.4 pts
Q3 7:07 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards 0% PRST +1.6 pts
Q3 5:24 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 15 yards 0% PRST +1.6 pts
Q3 5:17 Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 14 yards 0% PRST +1.6 pts
Q3 0:27 False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.8 pts
Q4 11:24 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PRST +1.3 pts
Q4 8:59 Personal Foul on Hawai'i, 15 yards 0% PRST +0.9 pts
Q4 5:29 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PRST +5.5 pts
Q4 5:07 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PRST +0.2 pts
Q4 2:56 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards 0% PRST +1.2 pts
Q4 1:07 False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PRST +0.3 pts

When it happened

Hawai'i’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Hawai'i was ahead in it, below while Portland State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:55 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 14 yardsJudgment calls +0% PRST PRST: End of half
2 Q1 9:24 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +0% HAW HAW: Punt
3 Q1 6:54 Portland State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% PRST PRST: End of half
4 Q1 6:25 Pass Interference on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% PRST PRST: End of half
5 Q1 4:54 Holding on Portland State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% HAW HAW: Touchdown
6 Q1 3:14 Portland State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +1% PRST PRST: End of half
7 Q1 1:30 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% HAW HAW: Touchdown
8 Q2 13:09 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +1% PRST HAW: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Portland State 3% · Hawai'i 97%

Final margin
Hawai'i by 20
Luck in points
6.9 for Hawai'i
Luck-adjusted margin
Hawai'i by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Portland State 37% · Hawai'i 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Portland State · Hawai'i

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