luckadjusted
CFB Week 10 · 2026

2026 college football season · October 1, 2026–October 3, 2026

Week 5 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

15 upsets in Week 5 2026. The biggest: Bowling Green beat Miami (OH) 24–20 as 25% underdogs, and got lucky. 7 of 59 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Pittsburgh beat Virginia Tech 35–33 in a game it wins 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 5 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 8 of 15 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bowling Green 24–20 @ Miami (OH) 25% 38% Lucky
San Diego State 31–29 vs Texas State 26% 35% Lucky
Purdue 24–17 @ Illinois 27% 27% Lucky
Minnesota 20–14 vs Michigan 34% 80% Deserved
Missouri 45–17 vs Florida 36% 99% Deserved
NC State 31–28 vs Louisville 36% 43% Coin flip
Eastern Michigan 38–14 @ Massachusetts 36% 78% Deserved
Temple 17–13 @ South Florida 36% 44% Coin flip
Baylor 55–19 @ Arizona State 41% 83% Deserved
Northwestern 34–13 vs Penn State 42% 100% Deserved
Kentucky 35–34 @ South Carolina 44% 63% Deserved
Fresno State 26–6 @ Washington State 44% 95% Deserved
San José State 20–16 @ Hawai'i 44% 24% Lucky
Florida State 38–7 vs Virginia 46% 100% Deserved
Pittsburgh 35–33 @ Virginia Tech 46% 30% Lucky

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 BYU W 17–10 @ TCU 16% +84
2 San José State W 20–16 @ Hawai'i 24% +76
3 SMU W 25–16 vs Boston College 25% +75
4 Purdue W 24–17 @ Illinois 27% +73
5 Pittsburgh W 35–33 @ Virginia Tech 30% +70
6 San Diego State W 31–29 vs Texas State 35% +65
7 Bowling Green W 24–20 @ Miami (OH) 38% +62
8 NC State W 31–28 vs Louisville 43% +57
9 Temple W 17–13 @ South Florida 44% +56
10 UNLV W 39–31 vs California 51% +49
11 Ohio W 13–10 @ Kent State 56% +44
12 Texas Tech W 29–7 @ Colorado 58% +42
13 Western Michigan W 20–17 @ Buffalo 59% +41
14 Air Force W 14–9 vs Navy 60% +40
15 Syracuse W 42–41 @ UConn 60% +40
16 Tennessee W 24–14 vs Auburn 61% +39
17 Kentucky W 35–34 @ South Carolina 63% +37
18 USC W 25–21 vs Washington 65% +35
19 Houston W 27–17 vs UCF 68% +32
20 Nebraska W 48–23 vs Maryland 70% +30
21 Eastern Michigan W 38–14 @ Massachusetts 78% +22
22 Notre Dame W 37–26 @ North Carolina 78% +22
23 Liberty W 30–14 @ Delaware 78% +22
24 Minnesota W 20–14 vs Michigan 80% +20
25 UTSA W 16–14 @ Rice 81% +19
26 Louisiana Tech W 31–29 vs Army 82% +18
27 Baylor W 55–19 @ Arizona State 83% +17
28 North Texas W 45–44 @ Tulsa 84% +17
29 Toledo W 39–24 @ Ball State 84% +16
30 New Mexico State W 34–13 vs Western Kentucky 85% +15
31 Georgia Southern W 31–24 @ Coastal Carolina 86% +14
32 Alabama W 56–23 @ Mississippi State 87% +13
33 Louisiana W 23–20 vs Arkansas State 88% +12
34 UAB W 33–14 vs Samford 90% +10
35 Ohio State W 31–14 @ Iowa 93% +7
36 Iowa State W 45–42 vs West Virginia 93% +7
37 Georgia W 38–14 vs Vanderbilt 94% +6
38 Oregon State W 56–26 @ Colorado State 95% +5
39 South Alabama W 52–35 vs UL Monroe 95% +5
40 Wisconsin W 31–3 vs Michigan State 95% +5
41 Boise State W 37–18 vs Utah State 95% +5
42 Fresno State W 26–6 @ Washington State 95% +5
43 Miami W 41–13 @ Clemson 96% +4
44 Central Michigan W 41–17 vs Akron 97% +3
45 Florida Atlantic W 66–10 vs Texas Southern 97% +3
46 Texas A&M W 34–7 vs Arkansas 97% +3
47 James Madison W 45–17 vs Marshall 99% +1
48 Arizona W 34–7 vs Cincinnati 99% +1
49 Memphis W 59–8 @ Charlotte 99% +1
50 Missouri W 45–17 vs Florida 99% +1
51 North Dakota State W 28–0 vs Wyoming 99% +1
52 Georgia State W 42–10 vs Old Dominion 100% 0
53 New Mexico W 61–7 vs UTEP 100% 0
54 Northwestern W 34–13 vs Penn State 100% 0
55 Florida State W 38–7 vs Virginia 100% 0
56 Indiana W 47–15 @ Rutgers 100% 0
57 Kansas W 55–0 vs Middle Tennessee 100% 0
58 Wake Forest W 57–3 vs Stanford 100% 0
59 LSU W 63–14 vs McNeese 100% 0
60 Middle Tennessee L 0–55 @ Kansas 0% 0
61 Stanford L 3–57 @ Wake Forest 0% 0
62 Rutgers L 15–47 vs Indiana 0% 0
63 Penn State L 13–34 @ Northwestern 0% 0
64 Virginia L 7–38 @ Florida State 0% 0
65 UTEP L 7–61 @ New Mexico 0% 0
66 Old Dominion L 10–42 @ Georgia State 0% 0
67 Wyoming L 0–28 @ North Dakota State 1% −1
68 Florida L 17–45 @ Missouri 1% −1
69 Charlotte L 8–59 vs Memphis 1% −1
70 Cincinnati L 7–34 @ Arizona 1% −1
71 Marshall L 17–45 @ James Madison 1% −1
72 Arkansas L 7–34 @ Texas A&M 3% −3
73 Akron L 17–41 @ Central Michigan 3% −3
74 Clemson L 13–41 vs Miami 4% −4
75 Washington State L 6–26 vs Fresno State 5% −5
76 Utah State L 18–37 @ Boise State 5% −5
77 Michigan State L 3–31 @ Wisconsin 5% −5
78 UL Monroe L 35–52 @ South Alabama 5% −5
79 Colorado State L 26–56 vs Oregon State 5% −5
80 Vanderbilt L 14–38 @ Georgia 6% −6
81 West Virginia L 42–45 @ Iowa State 7% −7
82 Iowa L 14–31 vs Ohio State 7% −7
83 Arkansas State L 20–23 @ Louisiana 12% −12
84 Mississippi State L 23–56 vs Alabama 13% −13
85 Coastal Carolina L 24–31 vs Georgia Southern 14% −14
86 Western Kentucky L 13–34 @ New Mexico State 15% −15
87 Ball State L 24–39 vs Toledo 16% −16
88 Tulsa L 44–45 vs North Texas 17% −17
89 Arizona State L 19–55 vs Baylor 17% −17
90 Army L 29–31 @ Louisiana Tech 18% −18
91 Rice L 14–16 vs UTSA 19% −19
92 Michigan L 14–20 @ Minnesota 20% −20
93 Delaware L 14–30 vs Liberty 22% −22
94 North Carolina L 26–37 vs Notre Dame 22% −22
95 Massachusetts L 14–38 vs Eastern Michigan 22% −22
96 Maryland L 23–48 @ Nebraska 30% −30
97 UCF L 17–27 @ Houston 32% −32
98 Washington L 21–25 @ USC 35% −35
99 South Carolina L 34–35 vs Kentucky 37% −37
100 Auburn L 14–24 @ Tennessee 39% −39
101 UConn L 41–42 vs Syracuse 40% −40
102 Navy L 9–14 @ Air Force 40% −40
103 Buffalo L 17–20 vs Western Michigan 41% −41
104 Colorado L 7–29 vs Texas Tech 42% −42
105 Kent State L 10–13 vs Ohio 44% −44
106 California L 31–39 @ UNLV 49% −49
107 South Florida L 13–17 vs Temple 56% −56
108 Louisville L 28–31 @ NC State 57% −57
109 Miami (OH) L 20–24 vs Bowling Green 62% −62
110 Texas State L 29–31 @ San Diego State 65% −65
111 Virginia Tech L 33–35 vs Pittsburgh 70% −70
112 Illinois L 17–24 vs Purdue 73% −73
113 Boston College L 16–25 @ SMU 75% −75
114 Hawai'i L 16–20 vs San José State 76% −76
115 TCU L 10–17 vs BYU 84% −84