Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

South Alabama Jaguars: luck and expected wins

South Alabama is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 12th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often South Alabama wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs SE Louisiana	W 39–14	12%	+88
Week 2	@ Tulane	L 24–28	44%	−44
Week 3	vs Ohio	W 41–36	62%	+38
Week 4	@ Kentucky	L 21–45	0%	0

Wk 1 +88 vs SELA

Wk 2 −44 @ TULN

Wk 3 +38 vs OHIO

Wk 4 0 @ UK

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	South Alabama win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs UL Monroe	South Alabama by 20.5	90%
Week 6 · Oct 8	at Arkansas State	Arkansas State by 1.3	47%
Week 8 · Oct 20	at Marshall	South Alabama by 1.7	54%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Louisiana Tech	South Alabama by 2.2	55%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Louisiana	Louisiana by 7.0	34%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Troy	South Alabama by 4.3	60%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Southern Miss	South Alabama by 1.8	54%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs App State	South Alabama by 2.0	55%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in South Alabama’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.12	+4.9
3rd & 4th downs	+0.11	+10.6
Pre-snap flags	+0.05	+4.8

Luckiest wins

Wins South Alabama takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	vs SE Louisiana	W 39–14	12%	+88
2025 Week 9	@ Georgia State	W 38–31	39%	+61
2026 Week 3	vs Ohio	W 41–36	62%	+38
2025 Week 13	vs Southern Miss	W 42–35	71%	+29
2025 Week 12	@ UL Monroe	W 26–14	90%	+10

Unluckiest losses

Losses South Alabama would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	vs Tulane	L 31–33	85%	−85
2026 Week 2	@ Tulane	L 24–28	44%	−44
2025 Week 10	vs Louisiana	L 22–31	34%	−34
2025 Week 8	vs Arkansas State	L 14–15	34%	−34
2025 Week 5	@ North Texas	L 22–36	28%	−28

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.2	−1.2	2–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Morgan State	W 38–21	94%	+6
Week 2	vs Tulane	L 31–33	85%	−85
Week 3	@ Auburn	L 15–31	9%	−9
Week 4	vs Coastal Carolina	L 20–38	26%	−26
Week 5	@ North Texas	L 22–36	28%	−28
Week 6	@ Troy	L 24–31	14%	−14
Week 8	vs Arkansas State	L 14–15	34%	−34
Week 9	@ Georgia State	W 38–31	39%	+61
Week 10	vs Louisiana	L 22–31	34%	−34
Week 12	@ UL Monroe	W 26–14	90%	+10
Week 13	vs Southern Miss	W 42–35	71%	+29
Week 14	@ Texas State	L 26–49	0%	0