Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
South Alabama at Troy, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Troy beat South Alabama 31–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Troy wins 9 of 10.
An off day for South Alabama: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Troy it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff South Alabama was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:50 left): South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to Troy.
Final (OT)
 South Alabama Jaguars | 24 |
|---|---|
 Troy Trojans | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Troy about even · −14 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 1, Troy wins 9.
- 1 USA 28 TROY 21
- 2 USA 28 TROY 31
- 3 USA 10 TROY 14
- 4 USA 20 TROY 28
- 5 USA 10 TROY 21
- 6 USA 14 TROY 28
- 7 USA 21 TROY 38
- 8 USA 10 TROY 31
- 9 USA 16 TROY 45
- 10 USA 10 TROY 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for South Alabama
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Troy it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for South Alabama: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama offenseEPA per play gained | +0.14 | +0.17 | worse by 0.03 |
| South Alabama defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.10 | worse by 0.12 |
| Troy offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.03 | better by 0.19 |
| Troy defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.05 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 14% of them, Troy 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 1.6% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 4.4% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Troy by 17+ | 45.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Taylor Renfroe, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- H. DiBoyan, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- S. Taylor Renfroe, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: South Alabama 7 for 55 yards, Troy 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:38 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:38 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:37 | Roughing the Passer on South Alabama, 15 yards | +2% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:30 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TROY +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:16 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TROY +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:38 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% USA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | 0% TROY +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:55 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:09 | Intentional Grounding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +5% TROY +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:05 | Delay of Game on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% USA +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Troy’s chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 14:45 | Troy fumbled and South Alabama recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% USA | TROY: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 8:27 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% USA | USA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 3:50 | Troy converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:22 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 14:23 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% TROY | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 13:50 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +10% TROY | USA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 9:38 | Troy converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% TROY | TROY: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:05 | Delay of Game on Troy, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% USA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 3% · Troy 97%
- Final margin
- Troy by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Troy by 12.1
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 14% · Troy 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
South Alabama · 
Troy
More from Week 6 2025
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- James Madison at Georgia State JMU 14–7 · replay 49% for the winner
- Texas State at Arkansas State ARST 31–30 · replay 50% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion ODU 47–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner