Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Old Dominion beat Coastal Carolina 47–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Old Dominion was an 88% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Old Dominion about even · 0 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 0, Old Dominion wins 10.
- 1 CCU 12 ODU 44
- 2 CCU 17 ODU 56
- 3 CCU 10 ODU 55
- 4 CCU 0 ODU 49
- 5 CCU 10 ODU 62
- 6 CCU 6 ODU 63
- 7 CCU 3 ODU 63
- 8 CCU 0 ODU 65
- 9 CCU 3 ODU 72
- 10 CCU 0 ODU 76
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Coastal Carolina wins 0% of them, Old Dominion 100%. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 40.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 98.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Callaghan, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- R. Callaghan, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- R. Callaghan, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Callaghan, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- R. Callaghan, 26 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Coastal Carolina 6 for 50 yards, Old Dominion 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:39 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | 0% ODU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ODU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +1% ODU +3.3 pts |
| Q2 8:37 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | Targeting on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% CCU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 12:50 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ODU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | Illegal Formation on Old Dominion, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% CCU +2.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Substitution on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Old Dominion’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:44 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% ODU | ODU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:39 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedHolding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:35 | Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +1% CCU | ODU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:54 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +1% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:19 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedR. Callaghan made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +1% ODU | CCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 15:00 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedFalse Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% ODU | CCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 12:50 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedCoastal Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedFalse Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% CCU | CCU: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 8:37 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Coastal Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Old Dominion, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Coastal Carolina 0% · Old Dominion 100%
- Final margin
- Old Dominion by 40
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Old Dominion by 40.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Coastal Carolina 0% · Old Dominion 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Coastal Carolina · 
Old Dominion
More from Week 6 2025
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- James Madison at Georgia State JMU 14–7 · replay 49% for the winner
- Texas State at Arkansas State ARST 31–30 · replay 50% for the winner
- South Alabama at Troy TROY 31–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner
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