Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
James Madison at Georgia State, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Georgia State 14–7, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, James Madison wins 5 of 10.
James Madison won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Georgia State it would win 86% of the time; with this day’s form, 49%. The numbers
Before kickoff James Madison was a 90% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:12 left): Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to James Madison.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 14 |
|---|---|
 Georgia State Panthers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 James Madison lucky · −51 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 5, Georgia State wins 5.
- 1 JMU 24 GAST 3
- 2 JMU 14 GAST 0
- 3 JMU 13 GAST 3
- 4 JMU 16 GAST 10
- 5 JMU 17 GAST 14
- 6 JMU 10 GAST 13
- 7 JMU 5 GAST 10
- 8 JMU 5 GAST 14
- 9 JMU 0 GAST 13
- 10 JMU 0 GAST 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
James Madison won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Georgia State it would win 86% of the time; with this day’s form, 49%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for James Madison: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.06 | worse by 0.06 |
| James Madison defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | −0.01 | better by 0.01 |
| Georgia State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.06 | worse by 0.08 |
| Georgia State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.13 | better by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 49% of them, Georgia State 51%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 8.3% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 29.1% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 13.2% |
| Georgia State by 17+ | 7.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: James Madison 10 for 90 yards, Georgia State 14 for 104 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:12 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia State, 15 yards | +1% JMU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 13:31 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GAST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:22 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +1% GAST +1.2 pts |
| Q1 5:27 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +2% GAST +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:57 | Illegal Snap on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GAST +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:37 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% GAST +2.0 pts |
| Q2 7:39 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +4% JMU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 5:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on James Madison, 15 yards | 0% GAST 0.0 pts |
| Q2 4:12 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +2% JMU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 2:54 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Illegal Block on James Madison, 10 yards | +4% GAST +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GAST +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:07 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +3% JMU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 12:50 | Illegal Substitution on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GAST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:12 | Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yards | +13% JMU +4.8 pts |
| Q3 6:44 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +4% JMU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:39 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GAST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:30 | False Start on Georgia State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST 0.0 pts |
| Q4 11:48 | False Start on Georgia State, 4 yards · pre-snap | +4% JMU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:59 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:59 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:25 | Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Georgia State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:21 | James Madison converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% JMU | JMU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 14:31 | James Madison converted 4th & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +8% JMU | JMU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 8:31 | James Madison was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +6% GAST | JMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 6:38 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 13:39 | Georgia State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 7:12 | Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:44 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% JMU | JMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:20 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% GAST | JMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 94% · Georgia State 6%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Georgia State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 9.8
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 49% · Georgia State 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
James Madison · 
Georgia State
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