UL Monroe at Northwestern, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

UL Monroe Warhawks	7
Northwestern Wildcats	42

October 4, 2025 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Closing line: Northwestern −12.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +6 Northwestern about even · −6 UL Monroe

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 1, Northwestern wins 9.

1 ULM 27 NU 21
2 ULM 21 NU 24
3 ULM 31 NU 38
4 ULM 14 NU 24
5 ULM 3 NU 17
6 ULM 10 NU 27
7 ULM 13 NU 33
8 ULM 7 NU 31
9 ULM 3 NU 31
10 ULM 7 NU 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UL Monroe wins 6% of them, Northwestern 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 35.

Actual: Northwestern by 35 494235282114707142128354249 ← UL Monroe win by Northwestern win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
UL Monroe by 17+	0.4%
UL Monroe by 9–16	1.6%
UL Monroe by 1–8	3.7%
Level after regulation	1.4%
Northwestern by 1–8	16.5%
Northwestern by 9–16	18.6%
Northwestern by 17+	57.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +11% NU

Kicks +4% NU

Pre-snap flags +1% ULM

All luck +14% NU

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.9 points to Northwestern: the final margin was Northwestern by 35, without the luck Northwestern by 21.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

L. Stagg, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
J. Olsen, 34 yds made · 80% expected
J. Olsen, 33 yds made · 82% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UL Monroe 2 for 27 yards, Northwestern 9 for 84 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 7:02	Face Mask on UL Monroe, 12 yards	+3% NU +1.5 pts
Q2 14:28	Ineligible Downfield on Northwestern, 5 yards	0% ULM +0.3 pts
Q2 9:08	Illegal Formation on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% ULM +0.3 pts
Q2 7:25	Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards	+1% ULM +0.6 pts
Q2 4:01	Delay of Game on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% ULM +0.4 pts
Q2 1:53	Pass Interference on Northwestern, 9 yards	+1% ULM +1.3 pts
Q3 2:25	Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yards	0% NU +1.6 pts
Q3 0:16	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Northwestern, 15 yards	0% ULM +0.9 pts
Q4 8:38	Illegal Use of Hands on Northwestern, 10 yards	0% ULM +1.3 pts
Q4 7:18	Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards	0% ULM +0.6 pts
Q4 6:51	Kick Catch Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards	0% ULM +0.9 pts

When it happened

Northwestern’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Northwestern 50% UL Monroe Q1Q2Q3Q4 24578

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northwestern was ahead in it, below while UL Monroe was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 9:13	Northwestern converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected	+2% NU	NU: Touchdown
2	Q1 8:23	Northwestern converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected	+5% NU	NU: Touchdown
3	Q1 7:02	Face Mask on UL Monroe, 12 yardsJudgment calls	+3% NU	NU: Touchdown
4	Q1 4:00	UL Monroe converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected	+3% ULM	ULM: Missed field goal
5	Q1 1:39	L. Stagg missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before	+4% NU	ULM: Turnover on downs
6	Q2 10:27	UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected	+2% NU	ULM: Turnover on downs
7	Q2 9:50	UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected	+3% NU	ULM: Punt
8	Q2 6:12	Northwestern converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected	+3% NU	NU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · UL Monroe · Northwestern

More from Week 6 2025

Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
James Madison at Georgia State JMU 14–7 · replay 49% for the winner
Texas State at Arkansas State ARST 31–30 · replay 50% for the winner
Penn State at UCLA UCLA 42–37 · replay 59% for the winner
Illinois at Purdue ILL 43–27 · replay 76% for the winner
Michigan State at Nebraska NEB 38–27 · replay 79% for the winner
Washington at Maryland WASH 24–20 · replay 83% for the winner
South Alabama at Troy TROY 31–24 · replay 86% for the winner
Wisconsin at Michigan MICH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion ODU 47–7 · replay 100% for the winner
Minnesota at Ohio State OSU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner

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