Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Michigan State at Nebraska, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Nebraska beat Michigan State 38–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Michigan State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Before kickoff Nebraska was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:08 left): Michigan State converted 4th & 6, worth 11 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Final
 Michigan State Spartans | 27 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Nebraska about even · −21 Michigan State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan State wins 2, Nebraska wins 8.
- 1 MSU 21 NEB 7
- 2 MSU 17 NEB 13
- 3 MSU 7 NEB 9
- 4 MSU 17 NEB 21
- 5 MSU 20 NEB 28
- 6 MSU 2 NEB 13
- 7 MSU 16 NEB 30
- 8 MSU 3 NEB 21
- 9 MSU 7 NEB 30
- 10 MSU 0 NEB 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan State wins 21% of them, Nebraska 79%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nebraska by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan State by 17+ | 3.9% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 32.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Michigan State 5 for 45 yards, Nebraska 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 13:23 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% NEB +1.3 pts |
| Q1 9:09 | Delay of Game on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on Nebraska, 4 yards | +2% MSU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 10:04 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yards | +2% NEB +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:28 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Nebraska, 15 yards | +2% MSU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Horse Collar Tackle on Michigan State, 10 yards | +4% NEB +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:14 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MSU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:23 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedHolding on Michigan State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:54 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +4% MSU | NEB: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 13:08 | Nebraska was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedMichigan State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedMichigan State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedMichigan State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +11% MSU | NEB: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 6:08 | Michigan State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +7% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:45 | Michigan State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% MSU | MSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 2:37 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +10% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 13:21 | Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% NEB | MSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:14 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedFalse Start on Nebraska, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% MSU | NEB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan State 0% · Nebraska 100%
- Final margin
- Nebraska by 11
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 15.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan State 21% · Nebraska 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Michigan State · 
Nebraska
More from Week 6 2025
- Penn State at UCLA UCLA 42–37 · replay 59% for the winner
- Illinois at Purdue ILL 43–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Washington at Maryland WASH 24–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Michigan MICH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Minnesota at Ohio State OSU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner