Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 70 of the 79 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Penn State at UCLA, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
UCLA beat Penn State 42–37, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, UCLA wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 17 points of win probability to UCLA.
An off day for Penn State: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against UCLA it would win 92% of the time; with this day’s form, 41%. The numbers
Before kickoff Penn State was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:19 left): Return touchdown by Penn State, worth 16 points of win probability to Penn State.
Final
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 37 |
|---|---|
 UCLA Bruins | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 UCLA lucky · −41 Penn State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penn State wins 4, UCLA wins 6.
- 1 PSU 28 UCLA 10
- 2 PSU 23 UCLA 13
- 3 PSU 15 UCLA 10
- 4 PSU 17 UCLA 14
- 5 PSU 12 UCLA 14
- 6 PSU 9 UCLA 14
- 7 PSU 9 UCLA 17
- 8 PSU 17 UCLA 28
- 9 PSU 20 UCLA 35
- 10 PSU 2 UCLA 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Penn State
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against UCLA it would win 92% of the time; with this day’s form, 41%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for Penn State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.10 | better by 0.12 |
| Penn State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.04 | worse by 0.04 |
| UCLA offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
| UCLA defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.10 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Penn State wins 41% of them, UCLA 59%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCLA by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penn State by 17+ | 7.4% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| UCLA by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| UCLA by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| UCLA by 17+ | 13.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Bhaghani, 24 yds made · 95% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 54 yds made · 50% expected
- M. Bhaghani, 56 yds missed · 48% expected
Penalties: Penn State 6 for 43 yards, UCLA 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:50 | Illegal Formation on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:03 | Pass Interference on UCLA, 15 yards | +4% PSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:16 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:47 | Holding on Penn State, 10 yards | +4% UCLA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:28 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Penn State, 15 yards | +3% UCLA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | Offside on Penn State, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% UCLA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 2:58 | False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% UCLA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 9:13 | Offside on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% UCLA +2.3 pts |
| Q4 5:57 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UCLA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UCLA +0.3 pts |
When it happened
UCLA’s chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:27 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +6% UCLA | PSU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 7:19 | Return touchdown by Penn StateSpecial teams | +16% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:09 | UCLA converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 14:53 | Penn State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +9% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:18 | UCLA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:13 | Offside on Penn State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +10% UCLA | UCLA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:01 | UCLA was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +11% PSU | UCLA: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:06 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedPenn State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% UCLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penn State 56% · UCLA 44%
- Final margin
- UCLA by 5
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for UCLA
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Penn State 41% · UCLA 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 70 of the 79 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Penn State · 
UCLA
More from Week 6 2025
- Illinois at Purdue ILL 43–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Michigan State at Nebraska NEB 38–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Washington at Maryland WASH 24–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Michigan MICH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Minnesota at Ohio State OSU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner