Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Washington at Maryland, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Washington beat Maryland 24–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Washington was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): Washington was stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 15 points of win probability to Washington.
Final
 Washington Huskies | 24 |
|---|---|
 Maryland Terrapins | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Washington about even · −17 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington wins 8, Maryland wins 2.
- 1 WASH 34 MD 0
- 2 WASH 26 MD 0
- 3 WASH 21 MD 0
- 4 WASH 26 MD 7
- 5 WASH 17 MD 3
- 6 WASH 21 MD 10
- 7 WASH 28 MD 21
- 8 WASH 10 MD 7
- 9 WASH 6 MD 10
- 10 WASH 13 MD 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington wins 83% of them, Maryland 17%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 37.2% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Maryland by 17+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- S. O'Haire, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- S. O'Haire, 55 yds missed · 47% expected
- G. Gross, 36 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Washington 7 for 86 yards, Maryland 5 for 31 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:16 | Personal Foul on Washington, 32 yards | 0% MD 0.0 pts |
| Q1 12:16 | Personal Foul on Washington, 14 yards | +14% MD +7.0 pts |
| Q1 10:09 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | +4% MD +1.8 pts |
| Q2 13:06 | Illegal Snap on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MD +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | Targeting on Maryland, 3 yards | +1% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:46 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | +1% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:15 | Personal Foul on Washington, 15 yards | +3% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:24 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:37 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards | 0% WASH +0.2 pts |
| Q4 14:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Maryland, 3 yards | +1% WASH +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Maryland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:16 | Personal Foul on Washington, 32 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Washington, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +14% MD | MD: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 0:34 | Maryland converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 8:58 | Maryland converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% MD | MD: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 10:00 | Maryland converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +9% MD | MD: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 7:54 | Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +14% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:24 | Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +10% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:43 | Maryland was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% WASH | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | Washington was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +15% WASH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 91% · Maryland 9%
- Final margin
- Washington by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Maryland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 8.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 83% · Maryland 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Washington · 
Maryland
More from Week 6 2025
- Penn State at UCLA UCLA 42–37 · replay 59% for the winner
- Illinois at Purdue ILL 43–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Michigan State at Nebraska NEB 38–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Michigan MICH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Minnesota at Ohio State OSU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner