Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Illinois at Purdue, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat Purdue 43–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Illinois was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 43 |
|---|---|
 Purdue Boilermakers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Illinois about even · −24 Purdue
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Illinois wins 8, Purdue wins 2.
- 1 ILL 52 PUR 16
- 2 ILL 48 PUR 20
- 3 ILL 35 PUR 13
- 4 ILL 49 PUR 31
- 5 ILL 17 PUR 3
- 6 ILL 42 PUR 31
- 7 ILL 17 PUR 10
- 8 ILL 20 PUR 17
- 9 ILL 48 PUR 51
- 10 ILL 21 PUR 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Illinois wins 76% of them, Purdue 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Illinois by 17+ | 35.8% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 18.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| Purdue by 1–8 | 12.2% |
| Purdue by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Purdue by 17+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Olano, 35 yds made · 83% expected
- D. Olano, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- D. Olano, 45 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Olano, 34 yds made · 85% expected
- D. Olano, 40 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Illinois 3 for 25 yards, Purdue 7 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:26 | Illegal Formation on Purdue, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% ILL +3.1 pts |
| Q1 1:55 | Personal Foul on Purdue, 9 yards | +2% ILL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 0:46 | Personal Foul on Illinois, 15 yards | +3% PUR +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:04 | Offside on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% ILL +2.7 pts |
| Q2 2:53 | Face Mask on Purdue, 15 yards | +2% ILL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:12 | Holding on Purdue, 9 yards | +1% ILL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:12 | Pass Interference on Purdue, 8 yards | +1% ILL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:57 | False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PUR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Delay of Game on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PUR +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:00 | False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Purdue’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 53%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:26 | Illegal Formation on Purdue, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +6% ILL | ILL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:26 | Purdue converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% PUR | PUR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:33 | Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% ILL | ILL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 0:46 | Personal Foul on Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% PUR | PUR: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 9:28 | Purdue was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% ILL | PUR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 6:04 | Offside on Purdue, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:12 | Purdue fumbled and Illinois recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% ILL | PUR: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:16 | D. Olano made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +3% PUR | ILL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Illinois 92% · Purdue 8%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 16
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 10.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Illinois 76% · Purdue 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Illinois · 
Purdue
More from Week 6 2025
- Penn State at UCLA UCLA 42–37 · replay 59% for the winner
- Michigan State at Nebraska NEB 38–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Washington at Maryland WASH 24–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Michigan MICH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 94% for the winner
- Minnesota at Ohio State OSU 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner