Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Purdue Boilermakers: luck and expected wins
Purdue is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck cost 0.6: the 29th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Purdue wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Indiana State | W 44–19 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | vs Wake Forest | L 36–38 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 3 | @ UCLA | L 38–52 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 4 | vs Notre Dame | L 10–49 | 0% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Purdue win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Illinois |  Illinois by 16.8 | 15% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Minnesota |  Minnesota by 5.5 | 37% |
| Week 7 · Oct 16 | vs Washington |  Washington by 7.9 | 31% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Penn State |  Penn State by 24.2 | 7% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Maryland |  Purdue by 2.5 | 56% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Iowa |  Iowa by 24.3 | 7% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Wisconsin |  Wisconsin by 9.0 | 30% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Indiana |  Indiana by 32.7 | 3% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Purdue’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | −0.06 | −4.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | −9.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.09 | −6.4 |
| Kicks | −0.10 | +0.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Purdue takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Southern Illinois | W 34–17 | 93% | +7 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Ball State | W 31–0 | 99% | +1 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Indiana State | W 44–19 | 99% | +1 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Purdue would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Minnesota | L 20–27 | 75% | −75 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Rutgers | L 24–27 | 52% | −52 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Wake Forest | L 36–38 | 35% | −35 |
| 2025 Week 3 | vs USC | L 17–33 | 26% | −26 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Illinois | L 27–43 | 24% | −24 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −2.1 | 0–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ball State | W 31–0 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | vs Southern Illinois | W 34–17 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 3 | vs USC | L 17–33 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 4 | @ Notre Dame | L 30–56 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 6 | vs Illinois | L 27–43 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 7 | @ Minnesota | L 20–27 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 8 | @ Northwestern | L 0–19 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 9 | vs Rutgers | L 24–27 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 10 | @ Michigan | L 16–21 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 11 | vs Ohio State | L 10–34 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 12 | @ Washington | L 13–49 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | vs Indiana | L 3–56 | 0% | 0 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,
Maryland, 
Michigan, 
Michigan State, Minnesota, 
Nebraska, 
Northwestern, 
Ohio State, 
Oregon, Penn State, 
Rutgers, 
UCLA, 
USC, Washington, Wisconsin
How many wins does Purdue have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.6 wins.
Was Purdue lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.6 wins of luck, the 29th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Purdue’s luckiest season?
2026: 1–3 from play worth 1.6 wins, −0.6 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 2–10 from play worth 4.1 (−2.1).