Wake Forest at Purdue, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Final (OT)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons	38
Purdue Boilermakers	36

September 12, 2026 · Ross-Ade Stadium · Closing line: Wake Forest −2.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +35 Wake Forest lucky · −35 Purdue

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 6, Purdue wins 4.

1 WAKE 28 PUR 3
2 WAKE 21 PUR 3
3 WAKE 17 PUR 3
4 WAKE 24 PUR 13
5 WAKE 14 PUR 7
6 WAKE 17 PUR 14
7 WAKE 14 PUR 17
8 WAKE 14 PUR 20
9 WAKE 7 PUR 17
10 WAKE 7 PUR 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wake Forest wins 65% of them, Purdue 35%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 2.

Actual: Wake Forest by 2 3528211470714212835 ← Wake Forest win by Purdue win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Wake Forest by 17+	18.9%
Wake Forest by 9–16	19.4%
Wake Forest by 1–8	23.6%
Level after regulation	9.3%
Purdue by 1–8	16.9%
Purdue by 9–16	8.1%
Purdue by 17+	3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Kicks +10% WAKE

3rd & 4th downs +9% WAKE

Pre-snap flags +4% WAKE

Fumble bounces +2% WAKE

All luck +25% WAKE

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to Wake Forest: the final margin was Wake Forest by 2, without the luck Purdue by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

J. Echeverria Lozano, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
C. Calvert, 39 yds made · 75% expected
J. Echeverria Lozano, 22 yds made · 93% expected
C. Calvert, 22 yds made · 94% expected
J. Echeverria Lozano, 30 yds made · 86% expected
C. Calvert, 44 yds made · 66% expected
J. Echeverria Lozano, 20 yds made · 94% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wake Forest 4 for 50 yards, Purdue 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:40	Face Mask on Wake Forest, 15 yards	+1% PUR +0.5 pts
Q1 5:51	Roughing the Passer on Purdue, 2 yards	+2% WAKE +0.8 pts
Q2 11:48	Holding on Purdue, 10 yards	+3% WAKE +1.4 pts
Q2 9:18	False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% PUR +0.8 pts
Q3 13:26	Offside on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% WAKE +0.5 pts
Q3 8:59	Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards	+5% PUR +1.6 pts
Q3 5:49	False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap	+5% WAKE +1.5 pts
Q3 1:59	Personal Foul on Purdue, 11 yards, wiping out the play	+8% WAKE +2.1 pts
Q3 0:37	Face Mask on Wake Forest, 15 yards	+6% PUR +1.6 pts
Q4 14:16	Intentional Grounding on Purdue, 0 yards	0% WAKE 0.0 pts
Q4 11:34	Personal Foul on Purdue, 15 yards	+7% WAKE +1.6 pts

When it happened

Purdue’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Purdue 50% Wake Forest Q1Q2Q3Q4OT 12345678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Purdue was ahead in it, below while Wake Forest was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q2 3:55	Wake Forest converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected	+9% PUR	WAKE: Field goal
2	Q2 0:02	J. Echeverria Lozano made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him	+7% WAKE	PUR: Field goal
3	Q3 4:49	J. Echeverria Lozano made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him	+14% WAKE	PUR: Punt
4	Q3 1:59	Personal Foul on Purdue, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+8% WAKE	WAKE: Field goal
5	Q4 11:34	Personal Foul on Purdue, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+7% WAKE	WAKE: Field goal
6	Q4 9:13	C. Calvert made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him	+10% PUR	WAKE: Punt
7	Q4 3:40	Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected	+9% PUR	WAKE: Punt
8	2OT	Purdue’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected	+22% WAKE	–

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Wake Forest · Purdue

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