Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
California at Syracuse, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
California beat Syracuse 21–18, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Syracuse wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to California.
Before kickoff Syracuse was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:51 left): Return touchdown by California, worth 38 points of win probability to California.
Final
 California Golden Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 California very lucky · −81 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. California wins 2, Syracuse wins 8.
- 1 CAL 23 SYR 10
- 2 CAL 24 SYR 21
- 3 CAL 18 SYR 20
- 4 CAL 21 SYR 27
- 5 CAL 17 SYR 28
- 6 CAL 3 SYR 17
- 7 CAL 10 SYR 27
- 8 CAL 10 SYR 31
- 9 CAL 9 SYR 34
- 10 CAL 6 SYR 39
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
California wins 19% of them, Syracuse 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| California by 17+ | 2.4% |
| California by 9–16 | 5.3% |
| California by 1–8 | 10.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 40.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Woody, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- T. Woody, 33 yds made · 85% expected
- T. McGough, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- T. Woody, 31 yds missed · 87% expected
- T. Woody, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
Penalties: California 9 for 95 yards, Syracuse 14 for 117 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:03 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards | 0% SYR +1.5 pts |
| Q2 14:37 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +1% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:20 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 15 yards | +3% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:21 | Offside on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 14 yards | +2% CAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:01 | Personal Foul on California, 15 yards | +3% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 15 yards | +2% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:05 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAL +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 9 yards | +1% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +2% CAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +4% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Running Into the Kicker on Syracuse, 5 yards | 0% SYR +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:01 | Illegal Block on Syracuse, 10 yards | +2% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:45 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +3% CAL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 8:13 | Illegal Substitution on Syracuse, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:04 | Illegal Block on Syracuse, 9 yards | 0% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:08 | Roughing the Passer on California, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +21% SYR +5.5 pts |
| Q4 12:58 | Face Mask on California, 15 yards | +6% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:36 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:36 | Offside on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SYR +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:10 | Illegal Substitution on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% SYR +1.7 pts |
| Q4 3:54 | Illegal Formation on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:14 | Delay of Game on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 13:08 | Roughing the Passer on California, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +21% SYR | SYR: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q4 12:58 | Face Mask on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% SYR | SYR: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q4 11:40 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% SYR | SYR: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:30 | T. Woody missed a 31-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +11% CAL | SYR: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 4:51 | Return touchdown by CaliforniaSpecial teams | +38% CAL | CAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 3:54 | Illegal Formation on Syracuse, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% CAL | CAL: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:40 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +12% CAL | SYR: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:35 | T. Woody missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before | +17% CAL | SYR: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
California 91% · Syracuse 9%
- Final margin
- California by 3
- Luck in points
- 6.0 for Syracuse
- Luck-adjusted margin
- California by 9.0
- Replay with same day's form
- California 19% · Syracuse 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
California · 
Syracuse
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Virginia UVA 59–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- East Tennessee State at North Carolina UNC 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Villanova at Louisville LOU 59–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Miami MIA 77–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Richmond at NC State NCSU 73–0 · replay 100% for the winner