ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Syracuse Orange: luck and expected wins

Syracuse is 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck cost 0.9: the 12th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Syracuse wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs New Hampshire	W 66–3	100%	0
Week 2	vs California	L 18–21	81%	−81
Week 3	@ Pittsburgh	L 13–27	12%	−12

Wk 1 0 vs UNH

Wk 2 −81 vs CAL

Wk 3 −12 @ PITT

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Syracuse win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at UConn	UConn by 4.2	39%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Virginia	Virginia by 16.7	15%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Louisville	Louisville by 8.6	30%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at North Carolina	North Carolina by 5.9	36%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs SMU	SMU by 7.8	32%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Clemson	Clemson by 2.8	43%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at NC State	NC State by 9.6	28%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Boston College	Syracuse by 3.7	59%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Notre Dame	Notre Dame by 27.1	5%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Syracuse’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.04	+3.0
Pre-snap flags	−0.03	+4.0
Kicks	−0.27	−5.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Syracuse takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ Clemson	W 34–21	34%	+66
2025 Week 2	vs UConn	W 27–20	66%	+34
2025 Week 3	vs Colgate	W 66–24	100%	0
2026 Week 1	vs New Hampshire	W 66–3	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Syracuse would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	vs California	L 18–21	81%	−81
2025 Week 8	vs Pittsburgh	L 13–30	57%	−57
2026 Week 3	@ Pittsburgh	L 13–27	12%	−12
2025 Week 1	vs Tennessee	L 26–45	12%	−12
2025 Week 6	@ SMU	L 18–31	8%	−8

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	3–9	2.9	+0.1	1–0	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Tennessee	L 26–45	12%	−12
Week 2	vs UConn	W 27–20	66%	+34
Week 3	vs Colgate	W 66–24	100%	0
Week 4	@ Clemson	W 34–21	34%	+66
Week 5	vs Duke	L 3–38	4%	−4
Week 6	@ SMU	L 18–31	8%	−8
Week 8	vs Pittsburgh	L 13–30	57%	−57
Week 9	@ Georgia Tech	L 16–41	3%	−3
Week 10	vs North Carolina	L 10–27	6%	−6
Week 11	@ Miami	L 10–38	1%	−1
Week 13	@ Notre Dame	L 7–70	0%	0
Week 14	vs Boston College	L 12–34	0%	0