luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Syracuse at Clemson, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Syracuse beat Clemson 34–21, but the replays lean toward Clemson: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Syracuse.

Before kickoff Clemson was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:57 left): Clemson was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Syracuse.

Final

Syracuse Orange 34
Clemson Tigers 21

September 20, 2025 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Closing line: Clemson −17.5

Luck index +66 Syracuse very lucky · −66 Clemson

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Syracuse wins 3, Clemson wins 7.

  1. 1 SYR 30 CLEM 7
  2. 2 SYR 24 CLEM 14
  3. 3 SYR 17 CLEM 14
  4. 4 SYR 27 CLEM 30
  5. 5 SYR 21 CLEM 27
  6. 6 SYR 28 CLEM 38
  7. 7 SYR 10 CLEM 23
  8. 8 SYR 27 CLEM 44
  9. 9 SYR 13 CLEM 35
  10. 10 SYR 17 CLEM 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Syracuse wins 34% of them, Clemson 66%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Syracuse by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Syracuse by 17+7.5%
Syracuse by 9–169.8%
Syracuse by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.8%
Clemson by 1–819.9%
Clemson by 9–1617.6%
Clemson by 17+25.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.7 points to Syracuse: the final margin was Syracuse by 13, without the luck Syracuse by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Woody, 23 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Woody, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Syracuse 7 for 52 yards, Clemson 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:01 False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLEM +0.5 pts
Q1 5:35 Illegal Snap on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SYR +0.7 pts
Q2 14:56 Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SYR +1.0 pts
Q2 12:38 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yards +6% SYR +2.6 pts
Q2 12:19 Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards +2% CLEM +1.3 pts
Q2 10:38 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yards +8% SYR +3.1 pts
Q2 6:25 Unnecessary Roughness on Clemson, 15 yards +4% SYR +1.6 pts
Q2 5:40 False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLEM +1.1 pts
Q2 1:49 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 2 yards +3% CLEM +1.1 pts
Q2 1:13 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SYR +1.6 pts
Q3 13:23 Illegal Snap on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SYR +0.8 pts
Q3 5:02 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SYR +1.2 pts
Q3 1:18 Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards +1% CLEM +0.8 pts
Q4 10:04 Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards +1% CLEM +1.7 pts
Q4 1:55 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SYR +1.5 pts

When it happened

Clemson’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Clemson was ahead in it, below while Syracuse was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:38 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% SYR SYR: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:38 Roughing the Passer on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% SYR SYR: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:13 False Start on Clemson, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% SYR SYR: Punt
4 Q3 11:44 T. Woody made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +7% SYR SYR: Punt
5 Q3 8:33 Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +7% SYR CLEM: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 7:57 Clemson was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +10% SYR CLEM: Punt
7 Q3 6:37 Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% CLEM SYR: Punt
8 Q3 2:18 Clemson fumbled and Syracuse recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% SYR CLEM: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Syracuse 69% · Clemson 31%

Final margin
Syracuse by 13
Luck in points
9.7 for Syracuse
Luck-adjusted margin
Syracuse by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Syracuse 34% · Clemson 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Syracuse · Clemson

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