luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Wofford at Virginia Tech, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Virginia Tech beat Wofford 38–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia Tech wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Virginia Tech was a 99% favorite.

Final

Wofford Terriers 6
Virginia Tech Hokies 38

September 20, 2025 · Lane Stadium · Closing line: Virginia Tech −34.5

Luck index 0 Virginia Tech about even · 0 Wofford

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wofford wins 0, Virginia Tech wins 10.

  1. 1 WOF 7 VT 23
  2. 2 WOF 3 VT 24
  3. 3 WOF 10 VT 34
  4. 4 WOF 10 VT 38
  5. 5 WOF 0 VT 31
  6. 6 WOF 0 VT 34
  7. 7 WOF 0 VT 37
  8. 8 WOF 3 VT 41
  9. 9 WOF 0 VT 44
  10. 10 WOF 0 VT 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wofford wins 0% of them, Virginia Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia Tech by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wofford by 17+0.0%
Wofford by 9–160.0%
Wofford by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Virginia Tech by 1–81.1%
Virginia Tech by 9–163.8%
Virginia Tech by 17+95.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to Wofford: the final margin was Virginia Tech by 32, without the luck Virginia Tech by 35. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Spence, 43 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Love, 59 yds missed · 45% expected
  • J. Love, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wofford 7 for 73 yards, Virginia Tech 3 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:25 Face Mask on Wofford, 15 yards 0% VT +1.8 pts
Q1 7:20 Personal Foul on Wofford, 15 yards 0% VT +1.6 pts
Q2 5:33 False Start on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VT +0.5 pts
Q2 1:20 Roughing the Passer on Virginia Tech, 15 yards 0% WOF +1.0 pts
Q3 12:30 Illegal Substitution on Wofford, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VT +0.8 pts
Q4 12:29 Face Mask on Wofford, 15 yards 0% VT +1.6 pts
Q4 10:56 Pass Interference on Wofford, 8 yards 0% VT +1.7 pts
Q4 10:06 Holding on Wofford, 10 yards 0% VT +1.6 pts
Q4 8:12 Holding on Virginia Tech, 6 yards 0% WOF +0.9 pts
Q4 5:49 False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WOF +0.5 pts

When it happened

Virginia Tech’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia Tech was ahead in it, below while Wofford was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:38 Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% WOF VT: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:09 Virginia Tech was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +0% WOF VT: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:25 Face Mask on Wofford, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% VT VT: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:20 Personal Foul on Wofford, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% VT VT: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:02 Wofford converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% WOF WOF: Punt
6 Q1 3:04 Wofford converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% WOF WOF: Punt
7 Q2 13:17 Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% VT VT: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:06 Holding on Wofford, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% VT VT: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wofford 0% · Virginia Tech 100%

Final margin
Virginia Tech by 32
Luck in points
3.0 for Wofford
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia Tech by 35.0
Replay with same day's form
Wofford 0% · Virginia Tech 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 34 of the 44 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Wofford · Virginia Tech

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