luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

California at San Diego State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

San Diego State beat California 34–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 9 of 10.

An off day for California: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against San Diego State it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff California was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:03 left): Return touchdown by San Diego State, worth 29 points of win probability to San Diego State.

Final

California Golden Bears 0
San Diego State Aztecs 34

September 20, 2025 · Snapdragon Stadium · Closing line: California −14

Luck index +8 San Diego State about even · −8 California

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. California wins 1, San Diego State wins 9.

  1. 1 CAL 22 SDSU 14
  2. 2 CAL 10 SDSU 14
  3. 3 CAL 20 SDSU 28
  4. 4 CAL 9 SDSU 20
  5. 5 CAL 7 SDSU 21
  6. 6 CAL 10 SDSU 27
  7. 7 CAL 7 SDSU 28
  8. 8 CAL 3 SDSU 27
  9. 9 CAL 0 SDSU 28
  10. 10 CAL 7 SDSU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for California

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against San Diego State it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

59 points apart for California: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
California offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 +0.06 worse by 0.11
California defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.04 better by 0.05
San Diego State offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.01 worse by 0.02
San Diego State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.09 better by 0.14

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

California wins 8% of them, San Diego State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
California by 17+0.5%
California by 9–161.9%
California by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
San Diego State by 1–812.5%
San Diego State by 9–1619.0%
San Diego State by 17+60.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.0 points to San Diego State: the final margin was San Diego State by 34, without the luck San Diego State by 24. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Plascencia, 34 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Meyer, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
  • G. Plascencia, 41 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: California 5 for 30 yards, San Diego State 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:30 Offside on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAL +1.1 pts
Q2 14:51 Penalty on San Diego State, 15 yards +2% CAL +1.6 pts
Q2 13:10 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CAL +2.2 pts
Q2 10:54 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q2 8:02 Pass Interference on San Diego State, 15 yards +4% CAL +1.5 pts
Q2 4:01 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.4 pts
Q2 4:01 False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.4 pts
Q2 1:36 Offside on California, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% SDSU +3.4 pts
Q2 0:33 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards +1% CAL +0.7 pts
Q3 14:49 Holding on California, 10 yards +4% SDSU +1.5 pts
Q3 13:57 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards +3% CAL +1.2 pts
Q3 4:34 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAL +1.8 pts

When it happened

San Diego State’s chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while San Diego State was ahead in it, below while California was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:54 California was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% SDSU CAL: Punt
2 Q2 13:10 Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% CAL CAL: Punt
3 Q2 3:49 C. Meyer missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him +7% SDSU CAL: Punt
4 Q2 1:36 Offside on California, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% SDSU SDSU: Field goal
5 Q3 14:49 Holding on California, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% SDSU SDSU: Punt
6 Q3 11:03 California fumbled and San Diego State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by San Diego StateSpecial teams +29% SDSU CAL: Punt
7 Q3 7:37 California converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +5% CAL CAL: Turnover
8 Q3 5:59 Return touchdown by San Diego StateSpecial teams +15% SDSU SDSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

California 0% · San Diego State 100%

Final margin
San Diego State by 34
Luck in points
10.0 for San Diego State
Luck-adjusted margin
San Diego State by 24.0
Replay with same day's form
California 8% · San Diego State 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · California · San Diego State

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