Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Nevada at Western Kentucky, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Kentucky beat Nevada 31–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:17 left): Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to Nevada.
Final
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 16 |
|---|---|
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Western Kentucky lucky · −27 Nevada
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nevada wins 3, Western Kentucky wins 7.
- 1 NEV 28 WKU 10
- 2 NEV 17 WKU 7
- 3 NEV 38 WKU 35
- 4 NEV 17 WKU 20
- 5 NEV 21 WKU 27
- 6 NEV 28 WKU 37
- 7 NEV 10 WKU 23
- 8 NEV 6 WKU 21
- 9 NEV 20 WKU 41
- 10 NEV 3 WKU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nevada wins 27% of them, Western Kentucky 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nevada by 17+ | 5.1% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 13.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 28.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Cannon, 47 yds missed · 61% expected
- J. McFadden, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- J. Cannon, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- J. McFadden, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- J. McFadden, 22 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Nevada 5 for 45 yards, Western Kentucky 7 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:22 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% WKU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +3% NEV +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:49 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WKU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:50 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 25 yards | +4% NEV +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:10 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | +4% NEV +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:56 | Personal Foul on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +5% NEV +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:44 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% WKU +2.9 pts |
| Q3 0:38 | Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:17 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +20% NEV +4.3 pts |
| Q4 8:09 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% WKU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 5:09 | Face Mask on Nevada, 15 yards | +4% WKU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 0:47 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 0 yards | +1% NEV +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Western Kentucky’s chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:22 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% WKU | WKU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 0:30 | Nevada converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% NEV | NEV: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 3:56 | Nevada converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% NEV | NEV: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:44 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:21 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:31 | Nevada converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% NEV | NEV: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:17 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +20% NEV | NEV: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 8:09 | Holding on Nevada, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% WKU | WKU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nevada 0% · Western Kentucky 100%
- Final margin
- Western Kentucky by 15
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Nevada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Kentucky by 20.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Nevada 27% · Western Kentucky 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Nevada · 
Western Kentucky
More from Week 4 2025
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- UTSA at Colorado State UTSA 17–16 · replay 40% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Boise State at Air Force BOIS 49–37 · replay 75% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Florida International DEL 38–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado COLO 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Idaho at San José State SJSU 31–28 · replay 91% for the winner
- California at San Diego State SDSU 34–0 · replay 92% for the winner