Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
UL Monroe at UTEP, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
UL Monroe beat UTEP 31–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UL Monroe wins 8 of 10. UTEP had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to UTEP.
An off day for UTEP: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UL Monroe it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff UTEP was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:59 left): Holding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to UL Monroe.
Final
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 31 |
|---|---|
 UTEP Miners | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 UL Monroe about even · −16 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 8, UTEP wins 2.
- 1 ULM 45 UTEP 0
- 2 ULM 48 UTEP 16
- 3 ULM 34 UTEP 7
- 4 ULM 45 UTEP 24
- 5 ULM 38 UTEP 21
- 6 ULM 48 UTEP 35
- 7 ULM 23 UTEP 14
- 8 ULM 20 UTEP 17
- 9 ULM 20 UTEP 24
- 10 ULM 7 UTEP 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UTEP
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against UL Monroe it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for UTEP: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe offenseEPA per play gained | +0.44 | +0.05 | better by 0.39 |
| UL Monroe defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.07 | better by 0.17 |
| UTEP offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.01 | worse by 0.12 |
| UTEP defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.44 | +0.04 | worse by 0.40 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UL Monroe wins 84% of them, UTEP 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UL Monroe by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 47.1% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 16.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| UTEP by 17+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Arreola, 40 yds missed · 72% expected
- L. Stagg, 44 yds made · 64% expected
- C. Arreola, 27 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: UL Monroe 11 for 83 yards, UTEP 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:59 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% ULM +5.0 pts |
| Q1 9:19 | False Start on UL Monroe, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +3% ULM +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:54 | Face Mask on UTEP, 15 yards | +2% ULM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:18 | Illegal Formation on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:48 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +3% ULM +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:28 | Illegal Substitution on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% UTEP +2.2 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +3% ULM 0.0 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:48 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +1% ULM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UL Monroe, 11 yards | +1% UTEP +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:13 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UTEP, 15 yards | +1% ULM +1.3 pts |
| Q3 1:13 | Illegal Formation on UL Monroe, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +2.6 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +1% ULM +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:38 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +2% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:45 | Delay of Game on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ULM +0.6 pts |
When it happened
UTEP’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:41 | UTEP converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% UTEP | UTEP: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 12:48 | UTEP converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% UTEP | UTEP: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:59 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% ULM | ULM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 10:32 | UTEP converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expected | +5% UTEP | UTEP: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 9:21 | UTEP was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% ULM | UTEP: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:20 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedC. Arreola missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +8% ULM | UTEP: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 8:59 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedUL Monroe fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% ULM | ULM: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:13 | UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% UTEP | ULM: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UL Monroe 90% · UTEP 10%
- Final margin
- UL Monroe by 6
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for UTEP
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UL Monroe by 9.7
- Replay with same day's form
- UL Monroe 84% · UTEP 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
UL Monroe · 
UTEP
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