Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Maine at Georgia Southern, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat Maine 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Southern wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Maine Black Bears | 17 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Georgia Southern about even · −2 Maine
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maine wins 0, Georgia Southern wins 10.
- 1 ME 21 GASO 27
- 2 ME 24 GASO 35
- 3 ME 21 GASO 38
- 4 ME 3 GASO 23
- 5 ME 14 GASO 38
- 6 ME 3 GASO 30
- 7 ME 7 GASO 37
- 8 ME 7 GASO 40
- 9 ME 3 GASO 42
- 10 ME 3 GASO 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maine wins 2% of them, Georgia Southern 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maine by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Maine by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Maine by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 12.6% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 78.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Bryant, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- T. Bryant, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
- S. Tremblay, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Maine 3 for 37 yards, Georgia Southern 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 7:31 | Face Mask on Maine, 7 yards | 0% GASO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | False Start on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ME +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:12 | Penalty on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +2% ME +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:48 | Penalty on Georgia Southern, 15 yards | +1% ME +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:23 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | 0% ME +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:54 | False Start on Maine, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:26 | Illegal Substitution on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ME +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:21 | Delay of Game on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ME +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:21 | Intentional Grounding on Maine, 25 yards | 0% GASO +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:37 | Georgia Southern fumbled and Maine recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% ME | GASO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:45 | Maine was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% GASO | ME: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:15 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +1% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:20 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +1% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:55 | Maine was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% GASO | ME: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 14:12 | Penalty on Georgia Southern, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ME | ME: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:37 | Maine was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% GASO | ME: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 8:33 | Maine was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +1% GASO | ME: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maine 0% · Georgia Southern 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 28
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for Georgia Southern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 20.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Maine 2% · Georgia Southern 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Maine · 
Georgia Southern
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Alabama CCU 38–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Nicholls at Texas State TXST 35–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- James Madison at Liberty JMU 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Georgia State at Vanderbilt VAN 70–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner