Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 30–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Louisiana Tech wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:01 left): Return touchdown by Louisiana Tech, worth 14 points of win probability to Louisiana Tech.
Final
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 20 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Louisiana Tech lucky · −55 Southern Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 5, Louisiana Tech wins 5.
- 1 USM 30 LT 0
- 2 USM 37 LT 20
- 3 USM 34 LT 21
- 4 USM 38 LT 31
- 5 USM 31 LT 28
- 6 USM 17 LT 20
- 7 USM 23 LT 29
- 8 USM 21 LT 31
- 9 USM 24 LT 40
- 10 USM 20 LT 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern Miss wins 55% of them, Louisiana Tech 45%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 19.6% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 11.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Henderson, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Harradine, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- R. Harradine, 37 yds missed · 77% expected
- R. Harradine, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Southern Miss 8 for 54 yards, Louisiana Tech 7 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:04 | Illegal Use of Hands on Southern Miss, 13 yards | +3% LT +1.8 pts |
| Q1 6:29 | Targeting on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +3% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:22 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 7 yards | +5% USM +2.3 pts |
| Q1 2:02 | Face Mask on Southern Miss, 15 yards | +3% LT +1.4 pts |
| Q1 1:54 | Illegal Substitution on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | Offside on Southern Miss, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:05 | Offside on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Offside on Southern Miss, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:35 | Running Into the Kicker on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards | 0% USM +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:00 | False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:54 | Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 14 yards | +1% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:52 | Delay of Game on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.1 pts |
| Q4 5:14 | Illegal Snap on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards | 0% USM +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Illegal Substitution on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:31 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:04 | Illegal Use of Hands on Southern Miss, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +3% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:29 | Targeting on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% USM | USM: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 4:22 | Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +5% USM | USM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 14:18 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +6% USM | USM: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:01 | Louisiana Tech missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeReturn touchdown by Louisiana TechSpecial teams | +14% LT | LT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 12:46 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +4% USM | USM: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 6:28 | R. Harradine missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +5% LT | USM: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern Miss 5% · Louisiana Tech 95%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 10
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 10.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern Miss 55% · Louisiana Tech 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Southern Miss · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Alabama CCU 38–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Florida International DEL 38–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- UT Martin at Missouri State MOST 42–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Nicholls at Texas State TXST 35–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- James Madison at Liberty JMU 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Maine at Georgia Southern GASO 45–17 · replay 98% for the winner