Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
UT Martin at Missouri State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri State beat UT Martin 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Missouri State was an 83% favorite.
Final
 UT Martin Skyhawks | 10 |
|---|---|
 Missouri State Bears | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Missouri State about even · −8 UT Martin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UT Martin wins 1, Missouri State wins 9.
- 1 UTM 21 MOST 14
- 2 UTM 17 MOST 20
- 3 UTM 28 MOST 35
- 4 UTM 21 MOST 31
- 5 UTM 10 MOST 24
- 6 UTM 21 MOST 38
- 7 UTM 6 MOST 27
- 8 UTM 17 MOST 42
- 9 UTM 17 MOST 48
- 10 UTM 0 MOST 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UT Martin wins 8% of them, Missouri State 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UT Martin by 17+ | 0.5% |
| UT Martin by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| UT Martin by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Missouri State by 17+ | 60.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: UT Martin 3 for 35 yards, Missouri State 9 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:21 | Face Mask on UT Martin, 15 yards | +1% MOST +1.4 pts |
| Q1 10:21 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTM +0.4 pts |
| Q1 1:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Missouri State, 15 yards | +2% MOST +5.1 pts |
| Q2 14:51 | Personal Foul on UT Martin, 15 yards | 0% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:36 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UTM +1.4 pts |
| Q2 7:36 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTM +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | 0% UTM +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:47 | Illegal Use of Hands on Missouri State, 10 yards | 0% UTM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:27 | Targeting on Missouri State, 2 yards | 0% UTM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:27 | Pass Interference on Missouri State, 2 yards | 0% UTM +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Missouri State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:48 | UT Martin fumbled and Missouri State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% MOST | UTM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:50 | UT Martin was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% UTM | UTM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:21 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedMissouri State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFace Mask on UT Martin, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% MOST | UTM: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 1:16 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:51 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedMissouri State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedUT Martin fumbled and Missouri State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on UT Martin, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 11:25 | Missouri State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 7:36 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedHolding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% UTM | MOST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UT Martin 0% · Missouri State 100%
- Final margin
- Missouri State by 32
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri State by 31.4
- Replay with same day's form
- UT Martin 8% · Missouri State 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
UT Martin · 
Missouri State
More from Week 4 2025
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Florida International DEL 38–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner
- James Madison at Liberty JMU 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Murray State at Jacksonville State JXST 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas TEX 55–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner