Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Gardner-Webb at Ohio, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat Gardner-Webb 52–35, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | 35 |
|---|---|
 Ohio Bobcats | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Ohio about even · −5 Gardner-Webb
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Gardner-Webb wins 1, Ohio wins 9.
- 1 GWEB 28 OHIO 23
- 2 GWEB 24 OHIO 28
- 3 GWEB 28 OHIO 35
- 4 GWEB 10 OHIO 24
- 5 GWEB 16 OHIO 34
- 6 GWEB 17 OHIO 38
- 7 GWEB 17 OHIO 44
- 8 GWEB 20 OHIO 52
- 9 GWEB 20 OHIO 56
- 10 GWEB 24 OHIO 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Gardner-Webb wins 5% of them, Ohio 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Gardner-Webb by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Gardner-Webb by 1–8 | 3.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 9.0% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Ohio by 17+ | 71.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Peacock, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Viorel, 53 yds missed · 48% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Gardner-Webb 3 for 25 yards, Ohio 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GWEB +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:01 | Holding on Gardner-Webb, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% OHIO +6.4 pts |
| Q2 1:08 | Personal Foul on Gardner-Webb, 0 yards | 0% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio, 15 yards | 0% GWEB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:12 | Personal Foul on Gardner-Webb, 15 yards | 0% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:54 | Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +3.4 pts |
When it happened
Ohio’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:03 | Gardner-Webb converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedGardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedGardner-Webb converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedGardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% GWEB | GWEB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:21 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% GWEB | OHIO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% GWEB | GWEB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:59 | Ohio converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedOhio missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +1% GWEB | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 12:52 | Gardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedGardner-Webb fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% GWEB | GWEB: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 6:30 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +1% GWEB | GWEB: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:01 | Gardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedHolding on Gardner-Webb, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% OHIO | GWEB: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 12:04 | Ohio was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +1% GWEB | OHIO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Gardner-Webb 0% · Ohio 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 17
- Luck in points
- 8.6 for Gardner-Webb
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 25.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Gardner-Webb 5% · Ohio 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Gardner-Webb · 
Ohio
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Toledo at Western Michigan WMU 14–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- UT Martin at Missouri State MOST 42–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Louisville LOU 40–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Duquesne at Akron AKR 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Wagner at Central Michigan CMU 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Florida State FSU 66–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner