Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Duquesne at Akron, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Akron beat Duquesne 51–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Akron wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Akron was a 75% favorite.
Final
 Duquesne Dukes | 7 |
|---|---|
 Akron Zips | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Akron about even · 0 Duquesne
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duquesne wins 0, Akron wins 10.
- 1 DUQ 21 AKR 31
- 2 DUQ 3 AKR 22
- 3 DUQ 7 AKR 31
- 4 DUQ 24 AKR 52
- 5 DUQ 10 AKR 42
- 6 DUQ 7 AKR 43
- 7 DUQ 3 AKR 42
- 8 DUQ 7 AKR 50
- 9 DUQ 0 AKR 48
- 10 DUQ 0 AKR 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duquesne wins 0% of them, Akron 100%. The line is what actually happened: Akron by 44.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duquesne by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Duquesne by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Duquesne by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 1.7% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Akron by 17+ | 94.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Wiley, 27 yds made · 86% expected
- M. Schramm, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- M. Schramm, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Duquesne 2 for 10 yards, Akron 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:27 | Ineligible Downfield on Akron, 5 yards | 0% DUQ +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:11 | Personal Foul on Akron, 15 yards | +1% DUQ +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:45 | False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AKR +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:14 | Pass Interference on Akron, 8 yards | +1% DUQ +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:22 | Pass Interference on Akron, 12 yards | 0% DUQ +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:46 | Personal Foul on Duquesne, 5 yards | 0% AKR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Illegal Forward Pass on Akron, 5 yards | 0% DUQ +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Akron’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:51 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% DUQ | AKR: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:20 | Duquesne was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +3% AKR | DUQ: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 8:09 | Duquesne was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +5% AKR | DUQ: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:45 | False Start on Duquesne, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% AKR | AKR: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 1:45 | Akron fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% AKR | AKR: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 0:44 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% DUQ | AKR: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 0:41 | O. Wiley made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +2% AKR | AKR: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 11:18 | Return touchdown by AkronSpecial teams | +2% AKR | AKR: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duquesne 0% · Akron 100%
- Final margin
- Akron by 44
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for Akron
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Akron by 34.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Duquesne 0% · Akron 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Duquesne · 
Akron
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Toledo at Western Michigan WMU 14–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Louisville LOU 40–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wagner at Central Michigan CMU 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Florida State FSU 66–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner