Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Toledo at Western Michigan, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Toledo 14–13, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Toledo had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 32 points of win probability to Toledo.
An off day for Toledo: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Western Michigan it would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers
Before kickoff Toledo was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:36 left): Toledo fumbled and recovered it, worth 38 points of win probability to Toledo.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 13 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Western Michigan lucky · −29 Toledo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 3, Western Michigan wins 7.
- 1 TOL 19 WMU 3
- 2 TOL 21 WMU 13
- 3 TOL 9 WMU 6
- 4 TOL 21 WMU 24
- 5 TOL 14 WMU 20
- 6 TOL 13 WMU 22
- 7 TOL 10 WMU 21
- 8 TOL 10 WMU 24
- 9 TOL 3 WMU 21
- 10 TOL 7 WMU 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Toledo
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Western Michigan it would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for Toledo: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo offenseEPA per play gained | +0.00 | +0.03 | worse by 0.03 |
| Toledo defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.00 | better by 0.14 |
| Western Michigan offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.03 | worse by 0.17 |
| Western Michigan defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.13 | better by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 29% of them, Western Michigan 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 3.8% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 24.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Cunanan, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Cunanan, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Toledo 5 for 48 yards, Western Michigan 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:54 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TOL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:48 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +2% WMU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:47 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:01 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +1% TOL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 2:50 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 13 yards | +2% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:59 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 15 yards | +5% WMU +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:57 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 4:40 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +7% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 3:15 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% TOL | WMU: End of half |
| 4 | Q4 5:59 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 3:11 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedWestern Michigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 1:12 | Western Michigan converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +17% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:52 | Western Michigan’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +15% WMU | WMU: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:36 | Toledo fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +38% TOL | TOL: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 42% · Western Michigan 58%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 1
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 29% · Western Michigan 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Toledo · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Louisville LOU 40–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Duquesne at Akron AKR 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Wagner at Central Michigan CMU 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Florida State FSU 66–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner