MAC · 2026 season, in progress
Toledo Rockets: luck and expected wins
Toledo is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.4 wins. Luck cost 0.4: the 38th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Toledo wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Michigan State | L 20–30 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 2 | vs Central Connecticut | W 63–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Temple | W 49–48 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 4 | vs San Diego State | W 41–16 | 99% | +1 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Toledo win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Ball State |  Toledo by 22.4 | 92% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Buffalo | Toledo by 29.0 | 96% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Eastern Michigan | Toledo by 20.4 | 90% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Western Michigan | Toledo by 10.1 | 73% |
| Week 10 · Nov 4 | at Sacramento State | Toledo by 26.1 | 94% |
| Week 11 · Nov 11 | vs Massachusetts | Toledo by 19.6 | 88% |
| Week 12 · Nov 20 | vs Bowling Green | Toledo by 27.8 | 95% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | at Ohio | Toledo by 8.8 | 70% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Toledo’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | −0.08 | −10.2 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.11 | −9.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.26 | −5.9 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Toledo takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Central Michigan | W 21–3 | 70% | +30 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Miami (OH) | W 24–3 | 82% | +18 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Temple | W 49–48 | 86% | +14 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs San Diego State | W 41–16 | 99% | +1 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Western Kentucky | W 45–21 | 99% | +1 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Toledo would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Bowling Green | L 23–28 | 79% | −79 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Michigan State | L 20–30 | 51% | −51 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Western Michigan | L 13–14 | 29% | −29 |
| 2025 Bush's Boca Raton Bowl | vs Louisville | L 22–27 | 19% | −19 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Washington State | L 7–28 | 8% | −8 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 8.7 | −0.7 | 0–3 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Kentucky | L 16–24 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 2 | vs Western Kentucky | W 45–21 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | vs Morgan State | W 60–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Western Michigan | L 13–14 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 5 | vs Akron | W 45–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 7 | @ Bowling Green | L 23–28 | 79% | −79 |
| Week 8 | vs Kent State | W 45–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | @ Washington State | L 7–28 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 11 | vs Northern Illinois | W 42–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | @ Miami (OH) | W 24–3 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 13 | vs Ball State | W 38–9 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 14 | @ Central Michigan | W 21–3 | 70% | +30 |
| Bush's Boca Raton Bowl | vs Louisville | L 22–27 | 19% | −19 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- MAC teams by luck
- MAC:
Akron, 
Ball State, 
Bowling Green, 
Buffalo, 
Central Michigan, 
Eastern Michigan, 
Kent State, 
Massachusetts, 
Miami (OH), 
Ohio, 
Sacramento State, 
Western Michigan
How many wins does Toledo have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.4 wins.
Was Toledo lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.4 wins of luck, the 38th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Toledo’s luckiest season?
2026: 3–1 from play worth 3.4 wins, −0.4 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 8–4 from play worth 8.7 (−0.7).