luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Kent State at Toledo, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Toledo beat Kent State 45–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Toledo was a 95% favorite.

Final

Kent State Golden Flashes 10
Toledo Rockets 45

October 18, 2025 · Glass Bowl · Closing line: Toledo −25.5

Luck index +1 Toledo about even · −1 Kent State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kent State wins 0, Toledo wins 10.

  1. 1 KENT 14 TOL 21
  2. 2 KENT 20 TOL 34
  3. 3 KENT 14 TOL 34
  4. 4 KENT 21 TOL 45
  5. 5 KENT 13 TOL 41
  6. 6 KENT 14 TOL 45
  7. 7 KENT 7 TOL 42
  8. 8 KENT 14 TOL 52
  9. 9 KENT 10 TOL 52
  10. 10 KENT 14 TOL 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kent State wins 1% of them, Toledo 99%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kent State by 17+0.0%
Kent State by 9–160.1%
Kent State by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.3%
Toledo by 1–82.6%
Toledo by 9–165.7%
Toledo by 17+90.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to Toledo: the final margin was Toledo by 35, without the luck Toledo by 31.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Hryszko, 38 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Cunanan, 28 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kent State 8 for 69 yards, Toledo 3 for 23 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:53 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards +1% TOL +1.2 pts
Q1 0:25 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards +2% TOL +1.9 pts
Q2 14:01 Personal Foul on Kent State, 15 yards +1% TOL +0.9 pts
Q2 11:44 Intentional Grounding on Kent State, 12 yards 0% TOL +2.5 pts
Q2 5:06 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOL +0.6 pts
Q3 12:04 Intentional Grounding on Toledo, 8 yards +1% KENT +2.6 pts
Q3 3:38 Ineligible Downfield on Kent State, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% TOL +2.4 pts
Q3 2:08 False Start on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TOL +0.8 pts
Q4 4:09 False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENT +0.5 pts
Q4 3:32 Holding on Toledo, 10 yards 0% KENT +0.6 pts
Q4 1:56 Pass Interference on Kent State, 7 yards 0% TOL +2.8 pts

When it happened

Toledo’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Toledo was ahead in it, below while Kent State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:07 Kent State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +2% KENT KENT: Field goal
2 Q1 8:08 Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +1% TOL KENT: Field goal
3 Q1 6:03 Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% KENT TOL: Punt
4 Q1 0:25 Holding on Kent State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% TOL TOL: Field goal
5 Q2 9:33 Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% KENT TOL: Punt
6 Q2 7:44 Kent State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +2% KENT KENT: Punt
7 Q2 2:41 Toledo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% TOL TOL: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:04 Intentional Grounding on Toledo, 8 yardsJudgment calls +1% KENT KENT: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kent State 0% · Toledo 100%

Final margin
Toledo by 35
Luck in points
3.9 for Toledo
Luck-adjusted margin
Toledo by 31.1
Replay with same day's form
Kent State 1% · Toledo 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Kent State · Toledo

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