luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Northern Illinois at Ohio, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Ohio beat Northern Illinois 48–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio was a 75% favorite.

Final

Northern Illinois Huskies 21
Ohio Bobcats 48

October 18, 2025 · Peden Stadium · Closing line: Ohio −10.5

Luck index +3 Ohio about even · −3 Northern Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 0, Ohio wins 10.

  1. 1 NIU 24 OHIO 30
  2. 2 NIU 24 OHIO 34
  3. 3 NIU 14 OHIO 28
  4. 4 NIU 10 OHIO 28
  5. 5 NIU 17 OHIO 38
  6. 6 NIU 16 OHIO 41
  7. 7 NIU 10 OHIO 38
  8. 8 NIU 17 OHIO 48
  9. 9 NIU 6 OHIO 41
  10. 10 NIU 10 OHIO 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northern Illinois wins 3% of them, Ohio 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northern Illinois by 17+0.1%
Northern Illinois by 9–160.4%
Northern Illinois by 1–82.4%
Level after regulation0.7%
Ohio by 1–87.0%
Ohio by 9–1614.7%
Ohio by 17+74.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to Ohio: the final margin was Ohio by 27, without the luck Ohio by 25.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Northern Illinois 2 for 20 yards, Ohio 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:03 False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OHIO +0.7 pts
Q2 10:08 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards 0% OHIO +0.8 pts
Q2 10:08 Holding on Ohio, 10 yards 0% NIU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:54 Holding on Ohio, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NIU +3.1 pts
Q2 1:54 False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.7 pts
Q3 13:49 Holding on Ohio, 10 yards 0% NIU +2.8 pts
Q3 7:34 Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +1.0 pts
Q4 12:07 False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.5 pts
Q4 1:42 Illegal Formation on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NIU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Ohio’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ohio was ahead in it, below while Northern Illinois was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% OHIO NIU: Punt
2 Q1 12:47 Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +1% OHIO NIU: Punt
3 Q1 0:00 Ohio converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +1% OHIO OHIO: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:04 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +1% OHIO NIU: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:56 Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% NIU OHIO: Punt
6 Q2 1:54 Ohio converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedHolding on Ohio, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Ohio, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% NIU OHIO: Turnover
7 Q3 13:49 Ohio converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedOhio missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeHolding on Ohio, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% NIU OHIO: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:04 Ohio converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedNorthern Illinois’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOhio fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% OHIO OHIO: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northern Illinois 0% · Ohio 100%

Final margin
Ohio by 27
Luck in points
1.7 for Ohio
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio by 25.3
Replay with same day's form
Northern Illinois 3% · Ohio 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Northern Illinois · Ohio

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