Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Central Michigan at Bowling Green, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Central Michigan beat Bowling Green 27–6, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Bowling Green had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Bowling Green.
Before kickoff Bowling Green was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:04 left): Central Michigan converted 3rd & 6, worth 10 points of win probability to Central Michigan.
Final
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 27 |
|---|---|
 Bowling Green Falcons | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Central Michigan lucky · −30 Bowling Green
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 7, Bowling Green wins 3.
- 1 CMU 31 BGSU 0
- 2 CMU 27 BGSU 3
- 3 CMU 20 BGSU 2
- 4 CMU 28 BGSU 14
- 5 CMU 17 BGSU 7
- 6 CMU 23 BGSU 16
- 7 CMU 24 BGSU 21
- 8 CMU 10 BGSU 13
- 9 CMU 13 BGSU 21
- 10 CMU 10 BGSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Michigan wins 70% of them, Bowling Green 30%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 26.5% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 5.7% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kleather, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Graham, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- J. Kleather, 49 yds made · 58% expected
- C. Graham, 47 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Central Michigan 9 for 74 yards, Bowling Green 14 for 123 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:18 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +3% BGSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 12:33 | Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +1% CMU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:37 | Offside on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +3.3 pts |
| Q1 3:29 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +3% CMU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 12:15 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:52 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BGSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:42 | Offside on Bowling Green, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 8:27 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% BGSU +3.5 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +5% CMU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:47 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Offside on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 4 yards | +1% CMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:06 | Delay of Game on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:09 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 13 yards | +1% CMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:32 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 9 yards | +1% BGSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:59 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +3% CMU +3.9 pts |
| Q3 4:08 | Illegal Formation on Central Michigan, 20 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 2:37 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:31 | Delay of Game on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Holding on Bowling Green, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CMU +2.6 pts |
| Q4 4:18 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 9 yards | 0% CMU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:38 | Face Mask on Bowling Green, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CMU +2.3 pts |
When it happened
Bowling Green’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:18 | Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% BGSU | BGSU: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 4:12 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% CMU | CMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:29 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CMU | CMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:56 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:27 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% BGSU | BGSU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 8:04 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +10% CMU | CMU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 5:59 | Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +6% CMU | BGSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 7:09 | C. Graham made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ beforePenalty on Bowling Green, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CMU | CMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Michigan 96% · Bowling Green 4%
- Final margin
- Central Michigan by 21
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for Central Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Central Michigan by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Michigan 70% · Bowling Green 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Central Michigan · 
Bowling Green
More from Week 8 2025
- Buffalo at Massachusetts BUF 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Akron at Ball State BALL 42–28 · replay 51% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) M-OH 44–30 · replay 88% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Ohio OHIO 48–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kent State at Toledo TOL 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner