MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Bowling Green Falcons: luck and expected wins

Bowling Green is 0–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost 0.6: the 27th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Bowling Green wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Tarleton State	L 13–20	23%	−23
Week 2	@ Nebraska	L 7–56	0%	0
Week 3	@ Iowa State	L 7–55	0%	0
Week 4	vs South Florida	L 6–14	32%	−32

Wk 1 −23 vs TAR

Wk 2 0 @ NEB

Wk 3 0 @ ISU

Wk 4 −32 vs USF

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Bowling Green win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Miami (OH)	Miami (OH) by 16.5	15%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Sacramento State	Bowling Green by 7.7	68%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Ball State	Bowling Green by 4.0	60%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Buffalo	Buffalo by 2.0	45%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Western Michigan	Western Michigan by 20.9	10%
Week 11 · Nov 10	vs Kent State	Bowling Green by 3.5	58%
Week 12 · Nov 20	at Toledo	Toledo by 27.8	5%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Massachusetts	Massachusetts by 5.1	38%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Bowling Green’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.17	+2.7
Fumble bounces	−0.02	−0.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Bowling Green takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs Toledo	W 28–23	21%	+79
2025 Week 3	vs Liberty	W 23–13	33%	+67
2025 Week 1	vs Lafayette	W 26–7	95%	+5
2025 Week 14	@ Massachusetts	W 45–14	98%	+2

Unluckiest losses

Losses Bowling Green would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ Eastern Michigan	L 21–27	74%	−74
2025 Week 9	@ Kent State	L 21–24	62%	−62
2025 Week 5	@ Ohio	L 20–35	38%	−38
2025 Week 13	vs Akron	L 16–19	36%	−36
2026 Week 4	vs South Florida	L 6–14	32%	−32

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.0	−1.0	1–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Lafayette	W 26–7	95%	+5
Week 2	@ Cincinnati	L 20–34	12%	−12
Week 3	vs Liberty	W 23–13	33%	+67
Week 4	@ Louisville	L 17–40	1%	−1
Week 5	@ Ohio	L 20–35	38%	−38
Week 7	vs Toledo	W 28–23	21%	+79
Week 8	vs Central Michigan	L 6–27	30%	−30
Week 9	@ Kent State	L 21–24	62%	−62
Week 10	vs Buffalo	L 3–28	1%	−1
Week 11	@ Eastern Michigan	L 21–27	74%	−74
Week 13	vs Akron	L 16–19	36%	−36
Week 14	@ Massachusetts	W 45–14	98%	+2